Intentional replacement of dead children in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from Ghana and Kenya

Abstract

This paper examines whether childhood deaths elicit an explicit, conscious and intentional fertility response using the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey data for Ghana and Kenya . Using multivariate hazard models, childhood mortality experience was found to have long term fertility implications beyond the short term physiological effects. In both countries, women who have experienced childhood mortality were found to have significantly higher number of additional children than those without. The death of the first child in particular was found to be associated with the risk of a higher order birth consistent with recent findings in Cameroon. The policy implications of the findings are discussed.Key Words: sub-Saharan Africa; Ghana; Kenya; fertility, childhood mortality; replacement hypothesis; hazard models. Stephen Obeng Gyimah and Fernando Rajulton 34 RésuméCet article examine si les décès d'enfants élicitent une réaction de fécondité explicite, consciente et intentionnelle à partir des données pour le Ghana et le Kenya contenues dans le Programme d'enquête démographiques et sanitaires de 1998. Au moyen de modèles de dangers multidimensionnels, on a constaté que l'expérience d'un décès d'enfant avait des conséquences à long terme sur la fécondité allant bien au-delà des effets physiologiques à court terme. Dans les deux pays, les femmes, qui avaient perdu des enfants, avaient considérablement plus d'enfants que les femmes qui n'en avaient pas perdus. On a d'ailleurs établi que le décès d'un premier enfant résultait en un plus grand ordre de naissances, ce qui a été confirmé par les dernières conclusions au Cameroun. Les répercussions en terme de politique sont traitées dans l'article.

Ideal Versus Actual: The Contradiction in Number of Children Born to Nigerian Women

“…While the results showed that about 70% of the sample had unmet fertility desires, the overwhelming majority of these are those who have fewer than desired, which is consistent with prior findings in the country (Makinwa-Adebusoye, 2001;Bankole & Feyisetan, 2002;National Population Commission, 2000, 2004. While the results showed that about 70% of the sample had unmet fertility desires, the overwhelming majority of these are those who have fewer than desired, which is consistent with prior findings in the country (Makinwa-Adebusoye, 2001;Bankole & Feyisetan, 2002;National Population Commission, 2000, 2004.…”

“…For those who have more than their desired number of children among women who have experienced child death, this could be explained through the insurance hypothesis of fertility response to child mortality where such women tend to have many children as insurance against potential future deaths (Gyimah & Rajulton, 2003, 2004. The odds of having more children than desired decreases with increase in age at first birth, while the reverse is true for those with less than desired fertility.…”

Determinants of infant and child mortality in Kenya: an analysis controlling for frailty effects

“…However, controlling for frailty effects, the death of the previous child is not significantly associated with the risk of death after infancy. The effects of death of the previous child on the risk of death of the subsequent one, especially the depletion of maternal physiological resources due to shortened birth interval, are well known (Gyimah and Rajulton 2004;Palloni and Rafalimanana 1999;Zenger 1993). However, an obvious but less known hypothesis in demographic literature is maternal depression.…”

Introduction to special section on the biological standard of living

“…This implies that the death of a child in a family actually leads to an increase in the risk of death of the next child. The causal mechanisms driving this effect are as of yet unidentified, but closely-spaced pregnancies might play an important role for the increased vulnerability of the next child (Gyimah & Rajulton, 2004). Women whose child dies tend to have their next birth sooner (replacement hypothesis) and short preceding birth intervals can lead to nutritional depletion which elevates mortality risks.…”