Intensity of land use changes in a sugarcane expansion region, Brazil

Melo, Márcio Roberto da Silva; Rocha, Jansle Vieira; Manabe, Víctor Danilo; Lamparelli, Rubens Augusto Camargo

doi:10.1080/1747423x.2018.1499829

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…There's the world's largest tropical rainforest in Brazil, the Amazon rainforest, which rainforest is characterized by abundant vegetation, high plant height and high density, so the NDVI value is always higher than other areas. NDVI was showing a trend of increasing slowly from 1982 to 2015, but there was a sharp decline in the vicinity of 2000, which was directly related to deforestation and land reclamation [49][50][51].…”

Section: The Impact Of Land-use Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Affecting Long-Term Trends in Global NDVI

Yang

Wang

Bai

et al. 2019

Forests

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Diagnosing the evolution trends of vegetation and its drivers is necessary for ecological conservation and restoration. However, it remains unclear what the underlying distribution pattern of these trends and its correlation with some drivers at large spatial-temporal scales. Here we use the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to quantify the activity of vegetation by Theil–Sen median trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test, Pearson correlation analysis and Boosted regression trees (BRT) model. Results show that about 34% of the global continent area has experienced greening in the grid annual NDVI from 1982 to 2015. The major greening areas were observed in the Sahel, European, India and south China. Only 10% of the global continent land areas were browning, and these were observed in Canada, South America, central Africa and Central Asia. BRT model shows that rainfall is the most important factor affecting vegetation evolution (63.1%), followed by temperature (15%), land cover change (8.6%), population (6.5%), elevation (6.4%) and nightlight (0.4%). It’s about 21% of the world’s continent were affected by rainfall, mainly in arid regions such as central Asia and Australia. The main temperature-affected areas accounted for 36%, located near the equator or in high latitudes.

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Section: The Impact Of Land-use Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Affecting Long-Term Trends in Global NDVI

Yang

Wang

Bai

et al. 2019

Forests

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An ever-growing demand for food, feed and biofuel triggered the competition for land and a spatial reorganization of land use in Brazil (Melo et al, 2018). Low-productive, extensive cattle ranching is being increasingly replaced by higher-income (per unit of area) crops, like soybeans or sugarcane (Martha et al, 2012;Melo et al, 2018). This process could have a negative impact on food production, and directly or indirectly generate the suppression of native vegetation areasas presented, for example, by Lapola et al (2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring future scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil and their land-use implications

et al. 2019

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Ethanol biofuel demand in Brazil is highly dependent on macroeconomic and policy drivers, making it difficult to anticipate future production and associated environmental implications.Here we develop scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil towards 2030, based on a thorough examination of key influencing drivers, i.e. GDP and population growth, fleet composition, blending policies, fuel prices and energy efficiency. We then estimate their land-use implications using a detailed partial equilibrium model, GLOBIOM-Brazil. We find that ethanol demand is highly sensitive to the drivers considered and could increase between 37.4 and 70.7 billion litres in 2030 depending on the scenario. Such increase is 13% and 114% above the 2018 consumption level. This represents an expansion in sugarcane area between 1.2 and 5 million hectares (14% -58% above the land-use in 2018). Compared to the low demand scenario, a high demand for ethanol in 2030 would drive sugarcane expansion mostly into pastureland (72%) and natural vegetation mosaics (19%). Our results suggest that future ethanol demand in Brazil should not substantially affect food production nor native forest. This outcome will however depend on the compliance with the sugarcane agro-ecological zoning (AEZ) by the ethanol sector in Brazil, a key assumption of our projections.

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“…An ever-growing demand for food, feed and biofuel triggered the competition for land and a spatial reorganization of land use in Brazil (Melo et al, 2018). Low-productive, extensive cattle ranching is being increasingly replaced by higher-income (per unit of area) crops, like soybeans or sugarcane (Martha et al, 2012, Melo et al, 2018. This process could have a negative impact on food production, and directly or indirectly generate the suppression of native vegetation areasas presented, for example, by Lapola and colleagues (2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental implications of meeting future demand for sugarcane-based ethanol in Brazil

Junior¹,

Uba²

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Since the middle of last century, sugarcane-based ethanol has played an increasingly important role in fuelling transportation in Brazil. The subsequent impact of this growing demand on natural ecosystems has been well documented. Global demand for ethanol is likely to increase further in the 21st century. Minimising the environmental impacts of meeting this demand in Brazil will require accurate predictions of the magnitude of future demand and the land-use classes where sugarcane crops are likely to expand. The primary objectives of this thesis are to assess the land-use implications of meeting future ethanol demand in Brazil and to evaluate strategies for minimising associated environmental impacts. Demand for ethanol in Brazil is highly dependent on macroeconomic and policy drivers, making it difficult to anticipate future production and associated environmental implications. In Chapter 2, I identified and explored the effects of key drivers of ethanol demand in Brazil. I projected three alternative scenarios of demand for ethanol in Brazil by varying measures of population and gross domestic product growth, fleet composition, blending policies, fuel prices and energy efficiency by 2030. I discovered that macroeconomic forces and policy interventions in Brazil could result in ethanol demand varying between 37.4 and 70.7 billion litres by 2030. In the absence of new interventions, demand for ethanol is likely to be in the range of 50.2 billion litres by 2030 if business as usual behaviour is followed. I have come a long way since the busy days of mid-2015, when I was finishing my Masters in Florianópolis, working for the state government, and preparing to move to Brisbane to pursue a PhD. I was fortunate enough to have the support from many people who facilitated my long service leave and my enrolment process at UQ,

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Intensity of land use changes in a sugarcane expansion region, Brazil

Cited by 6 publications

References 13 publications

Factors Affecting Long-Term Trends in Global NDVI

Factors Affecting Long-Term Trends in Global NDVI

Exploring future scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil and their land-use implications

Environmental implications of meeting future demand for sugarcane-based ethanol in Brazil

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