Intensifying marine heatwaves and limited protection threaten global kelp forests

Abstract

Kelp forests are one of the earth's most productive ecosystems and are at the greatest risk from climate change, yet little is known regarding their future threats and current conservation status. By combining a global remote sensing dataset of floating kelp forests with climate data and projections, we find that exposure to projected marine heatwaves will increase ~8 times compared to contemporary (2001-2020) exposure for intermediate climate scenarios. While exposure will intensify for all forests, climate refugia emerge for some southern hemisphere kelp forests, which have lower exposure to contemporary and projected marine heatwaves. Under these escalating threats, less than 3% of global kelp forests are currently within highly restrictive marine protected areas, the most effective conservation measure for providing climate resilience. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to increase the global protection of kelp forests and set bolder climate adaptation goals.