Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China

Abstract

Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone (AHTZ) in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation. We simulated the net primary productivity (NPP) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model. Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level. From the midterm period (2041-2070) to the long-term period (2071-2099), the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased. The higher the scenario emissions, the more serious the risk. In particular, under the RCP8.5 scenario, during 2071-2099, the total risk area would be 81.85%, that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%. In this high-risk area, the NPP anomaly would reach -96.00±46.95 gC•m -2 •a -1 , and the rate of change of the NPP would reach -3.56±3.40 gC•m -2 •a -1 . The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas. Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem.

Primary plant nutrients modulate the reactive oxygen species metabolism and mitigate the impact of cold stress in overseeded perennial ryegrass

“…A transitional climatic zone (TCZ) refers to the transitional zone between arid and humid regions that is sensitive to climatic fluctuations (Barker et al, 2019). In China, TCZ is located in marginal areas of the East Asian monsoon zone where the ecosystem has become unstable due to combined effects of climatic change and human activities (Yin et al, 2021;Yin et al, 2022). TCZ possesses both severe cold and hot temperatures in their respective seasons (Christians et al, 2016).…”

Features of Radial Growth Rate of Trees in Agro-Pastoral Transition Zone, Northern China

“…This indicated that the drought stress or precipitation-related soil moisture caused by the rapid warming in northern China did not exceed the limits or critical thresholds of the physiological responses of the radial growth of P. tabulaeformis to hydroclimate elements. However, recent emissions scenario results show that the primary risk region due to more warming and drying conditions in the future appears to be the eastern plain of the arid-humid transition zone and grasslands of the southeastern Mongolian Plateau [14], including our study areas.…”

“…The ecosystems of the arid-humid transition zone in northern China would encounter severe challenges of high risk by the end of the 21st century under the future emission scenarios [13]. The NPP loss and risk over the eastern plain of North China and the southeastern grassland of Mongolian Plateau tend to intensify under the higher emission scenarios of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the future [14]. The northern agro-pastoral transition zone is in the range of the arid-humid region [15].…”