Intelligent Method for Classifying the Level of Anthropogenic Disasters

Abstract

Anthropogenic disasters pose a challenge to management in the modern world. At the same time, it is important to have accurate and timely information to assess the level of danger and take appropriate measures to eliminate disasters. Therefore, the purpose of the paper is to develop an effective method for assessing the level of anthropogenic disasters based on information from witnesses to the event. For this purpose, a conceptual model for assessing the consequences of anthropogenic disasters is proposed, the main components of which are the following ones: the analysis of collected data, modeling and assessment of their consequences. The main characteristics of the intelligent method for classifying the level of anthropogenic disasters are considered, in particular, exploratory data analysis using the EDA method, classification based on textual data using SMOTE, and data classification by the ensemble method of machine learning using boosting. The experimental results confirmed that for textual data, the best classification is at level V and level I with an error of 0.97 and 0.94, respectively, and the average error estimate is 0.68. For quantitative data, the classification accuracy of Potential Accident Level relative to Industry Sector is 77%, and the f1-score is 0.88, which indicates a fairly high accuracy of the model. The architecture of a mobile application for classifying the level of anthropogenic disasters has been developed, which reduces the time required to assess consequences of danger in the region. In addition, the proposed approach ensures interaction with dynamic and uncertain environments, which makes it an effective tool for classifying.

Quality and Security of Critical Infrastructure Systems

“…The paper [1] is devoted to the development of an effective method for assessing the level of anthropogenic disasters based on information from witnesses of the event. The authors created a conceptual model for assessing the consequences of such disasters, which includes the analysis of collected data, modeling, and the assessment of their consequences.…”