Intelligence Analysis

Odom, William E.

doi:10.1080/02684520802121216

Cited by 15 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…There was little deviation from the respondents' answers in this regard compared to the mainstream academic literature, and relevant extant military doctrines and publications, e.g. as described by Odom (2008) and in NATO ( 2011). However, an interesting counterpoint was given by one of the focus groups (FG 1) that situations are not necessarily more complex but the more understanding we gain of a problem domain, the more uncertainty and complexity are revealed.…”

Section: Theme 1: the Nature Of The Modern Operating Environmentmentioning

confidence: 84%

Uncertainty handling in estimative intelligence – challenges and requirements from both analyst and consumer perspectives

Isaksen

McNaught

2019

Journal of Risk Research

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Important assessments of events and activities relating to military, terrorist and hybrid adversaries, and the intentions of foreign governments, are made every day, usually involving subjective or 'estimative' probabilities and an associated level of confidence. The way in which these uncertainties are assessed and communicated can potentially have enormous impact and consequences. Challenges are reinforced by increasingly complex intelligence problems for which the contemporary analytic paradigm is not tailored to cope. It is important to better understand how defence intelligence analysts and consumers handle uncertainty in their assessment and decision support activities, and what challenges and requirements they face in doing so. This is mainly achieved by the use of semi-structured interviews with a sample of very senior consumers of military intelligence (mostly Flag Officers of the Norwegian Armed Forces) and focus group interviews with groups of Norwegian intelligence analysts. In general, respondents found it difficult or challenging to conceptualize uncertainty analytically. This has implications for the communication of uncertainty and its use in decision-making within the current framework. Secondly, respondents were receptive to suggested potential improvements to the existing framework. One such suggestion involved a differentiated framework, offering different levels of uncertainty resolution in different situations, although none of the respondents had any experience of such a framework for assessing or communicating uncertainty. We conclude with some recommendations to improve the process of uncertainty and risk communication in this important and consequential application area. Having particular implications for policy, we recommend that analysts follow a differentiated approach in handling different situations and problems comprising uncertainty, rather than pursuing a standard solution as is current practice.

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Section: Theme 1: the Nature Of The Modern Operating Environmentmentioning

confidence: 84%

Uncertainty handling in estimative intelligence – challenges and requirements from both analyst and consumer perspectives

Isaksen

McNaught

2019

Journal of Risk Research

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“…Indeed, when OSINT data are automatically crawled and analyzed, only significant matches are returned through the analyst queries, and some crucial detail may go missing altogether. This problem has already emerged in the literature and will remain dominant (Odom 2008 , 325). Eldridge et al ( 2018 ) argue that OSINT analysis should never get rid of its human component, and that “joint cognitive systems” (Eldridge et al 2018 , 22) should be designed to strike the optimal balance between analysts and algorithms.…”

Section: Future Research Directions: the Gelsi Of Ai And Osintmentioning

confidence: 99%

Open source intelligence and AI: a systematic review of the GELSI literature

2023

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Today, open source intelligence (OSINT), i.e., information derived from publicly available sources, makes up between 80 and 90 percent of all intelligence activities carried out by Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) and intelligence services in the West. Developments in data mining, machine learning, visual forensics and, most importantly, the growing computing power available for commercial use, have enabled OSINT practitioners to speed up, and sometimes even automate, intelligence collection and analysis, obtaining more accurate results more quickly. As the infosphere expands to accommodate ever-increasing online presence, so does the pool of actionable OSINT. These developments raise important concerns in terms of governance, ethical, legal, and social implications (GELSI). New and crucial oversight concerns emerge alongside standard privacy concerns, as some of the more advanced data analysis tools require little to no supervision. This article offers a systematic review of the relevant literature. It analyzes 571 publications to assess the current state of the literature on the use of AI-powered OSINT (and the development of OSINT software) as it relates to the GELSI framework, highlighting potential gaps and suggesting new research directions.

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“…Tomando emprestados conceitos da teoria econômica de Custos de Transação (Williamson 1975(Williamson , 1985, o SI trabalha no sentido de diminuir custos pertinentes às negociações do Estado, tendo em vista a racionalidade limitada e a incerteza dos tomadores de decisão, e também do custo do oportunismo de agentes externos que podem usufruir de assimetria de informação. Entretanto, cumpre destacar que os produtos da Inteligência são apenas um dos fluxos informacionais que influenciam o processo de tomada de decisão, além de não poderem ser acusados por boa ou má decisão (Cepik 2002;Odom 2008).…”

Section: Segurança Nacional -Nível Metaunclassified

“…Por exemplo, logo após os atentados de 11 de setembro, em comissões do congresso americano, foi dito que funcionários de SIs americanos afirmaram que o Irã não tinha bomba nuclear e nem conseguiria fazê-lo em curto espaço de tempo, o que acabou definindo a não intervenção dos Estados Unidos. Contudo, este fato, por si só, não poderia determinar a decisão de instâncias superiores do governo americano se haveria guerra ou não entre os dois países (Odom 2008). Outrossim, durante a Segunda Guerra Mundial, foi constatado que generais americanos de melhor desempenho foram aqueles ávidos pelas informações da Inteligência e abertos a quaisquer análises, mesmo recebendo julgamentos desfavoráveis e contrários à visão deles sobre a guerra (Deutsch 1988).…”

Section: Segurança Nacional -Nível Metaunclassified

Interações entre Defesa e Inteligência: a Contribuição desses Setores para a Realização de Interesses Nacionais

Filho

2016

RBED

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O objetivo deste trabalho é demonstrar, com ênfase no Brasil, que para se desenvolver o país, é necessário ter segurança nacional por meio do fortalecimento da Defesa, ação sempre amparada pela Inteligência. São analisados qualitativamente cinco tópicos de atuação da Defesa, pertencentes a níveis de abrangência diferentes: Segurança Nacional, Política e Estratégia de Defesa, Política pública de desenvolvimento da indústria de Defesa, Bens e tecnologias de uso dual e Casos concretos de acesso e restrição a estes bens e tecnologias. Os critérios técnicos de escolha dos tópicos foram as prioridades de Estado, aliados a parâmetros de maiores utilidade para a sociedade e probabilidade de realização. Os resultados apontam que o desenvolvimento da indústria de Defesa, maximizado pela produção de bens e tecnologias duais, desenvolve a economia e torna as Forças Armadas melhor equipadas. Processo que retroalimenta a Segurança, que por sua vez fornece bases para realização dos interesses nacionais.

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Intelligence Analysis

Cited by 15 publications

References 0 publications

Uncertainty handling in estimative intelligence – challenges and requirements from both analyst and consumer perspectives

Uncertainty handling in estimative intelligence – challenges and requirements from both analyst and consumer perspectives

Open source intelligence and AI: a systematic review of the GELSI literature

Interações entre Defesa e Inteligência: a Contribuição desses Setores para a Realização de Interesses Nacionais

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Intelligence Analysis

Cited by 15 publications

References 0 publications

Uncertainty handling in estimative intelligence – challenges and requirements from both analyst and consumer perspectives

Uncertainty handling in estimative intelligence – challenges and requirements from both analyst and consumer perspectives

Open source intelligence and AI: a systematic review of the GELSI literature﻿

Interações entre Defesa e Inteligência: a Contribuição desses Setores para a Realização de Interesses Nacionais

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Open source intelligence and AI: a systematic review of the GELSI literature