Integrative Estimation of Region Economic Stability as in the Case of the Russian Federation

Abstract

Economic stability of a region is an important object of control and analysis for the government. However, it is complex indicator and assessable complicatedly. The goal of the paper is a development of a methodology of region economic stability integrative estimation resistant to short dramatic fluctuations of definite years. The research is based on the data about 10 regions of the Russian Federation over the period of 2000-2018. Suggested methodology includes 12 components of economic stability based on 67 indicators. These indicators were chosen and subdivided into groups by three courses of threats i.e. social and demographical threat, production and economic threat, and infrastructural and supporting threat. Smoothing of coefficients is made by arithmetic progression with smoothing width equal to 5 years in order to obtain estimations resistant to short fluctuations. Integrative estimation helps compare indicators completely different by quality and quantity, to range regions and estimate influence extent of some actions or external shocks on economic stability dynamics, and to forecast further development of the scenario in the region. The integrative estimation was tested in the Vologda Region of the Russian Federation. The result of this test proves significant decrease of the economic stability over 18 years.