Integrating wildfire spread and evacuation times to design safe triggers: Application to two rural communities using PERIL model

Mitchell, Harry; Gwynne, S.; Ronchi, Enrico; Kalogeropoulos, Nikolaos; Rein, Guillermo

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105914

Cited by 8 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…itine ro. tech/) The readers are referred to the documents presenting WUI-NITY (Ronchi et al 2021a;Wahlqvist et al 2021b) and its associated trigger buffer model k-PERIL (Kalogeropoulos 2021;Mitchell et al 2023) for a more detailed presentation of the modelling assumptions in use.…”

Section: Application Of Verification Testing To Wui-nitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…After the tests were defined, they were preliminarily applied to the simulation software WUI-NITY (both evacuation and wildfire sub models) and its associated trigger buffer model k-PERIL. Trigger buffers indicate a point or a perimeter ahead of a community that when reached by a wildfire should inform a safe evacuation order being given (Mitchell et al 2023 ). The results produced were compared to expected hand calculated results and the differences were analysed.…”

Section: The Verification Testing Workflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In other words, while a wildfire is modelled, pedestrian response is represented along with their movement towards vehicles which are then accessing the traffic network. Routing is modelled through the implementation of the tool called Itinero ( www.itinero.tech/ ) The readers are referred to the documents presenting WUI-NITY (Ronchi et al 2021a ; Wahlqvist et al 2021b ) and its associated trigger buffer model k-PERIL (Kalogeropoulos 2021 ; Mitchell et al 2023 ) for a more detailed presentation of the modelling assumptions in use.…”

Section: Application Of Verification Testing To Wui-nitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The verification of wildland–urban interface fire evacuation models

et al. 2023

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This paper introduces a protocol for the verification of multi-physics wildfire evacuation models, including a set of tests used to ensure that the conceptual modelling representation of each modelling layer is accurately implemented, as well as the interactions between different modelling layers and sub-models (wildfire spread, pedestrian movement, traffic evacuation, and trigger buffers). This work presents a total of 24 verification tests, including (1) 4 tests related to pedestrians, (2) 15 tests for traffic evacuation, (3) 5 tests concerning the interaction between different modelling layers, along with 5 tests for wildfire spread and trigger buffers. The evacuation tests are organized in accordance with different core components related to evacuation modelling, namely Population, Pre-evacuation, Movement, Route/destination selection, Flow constraints, Events, Wildfire spread and Trigger buffers. A reporting template has also been developed to facilitate the application of the verification testing protocol. An example application of the testing protocol has been performed using an open wildfire evacuation modelling platform called WUI-NITY and its associated trigger buffer model k-PERIL. The verification testing protocol is deemed to improve the credibility of wildfire evacuation model results and stimulate future modelling efforts in this domain.

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Section: Application Of Verification Testing To Wui-nitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Verification Testing Workflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Application Of Verification Testing To Wui-nitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The verification of wildland–urban interface fire evacuation models

et al. 2023

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“…More recently, Mitchell et al [66] explored defining evacuation trigger buffers using a method they called PERIL, developed using the WUI-NITY model framework [56,57,67]. To demonstrate the capabilities of this approach, the model was applied to two communities: one in the United Kingdom and one in Colorado.…”

Section: Evacuation Trigger Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

WUI fire evacuation and sheltering considerations :

Maranghides,

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2023

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Impacts of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires continue to rise in the U.S., as evidenced by the string of devastating and record-breaking events occurring since 2017. As seen in several events in recent years, WUI fires can impact communities quickly, leaving little to no time for civilians to evacuate. Numerous events have also occurred internationally, including Australia, Canada, Chile, Greece, and Portugal. One example is the Camp Fire that occurred on November 8, 2018, in Butte County, CA. The fire resulted in 85 fatalities and the destruction and damage of over 18 000 buildings, destroying over 90 % of the buildings in the town of Paradise. Following the fire, NIST initiated a case study to document and analyze fire spread and behavior, notifications, evacuations, and defensive actions to support preparedness for future WUI fires. The NIST Camp Fire case study has highlighted a number of potential challenges that intermix communities may face during WUI fire events. The purpose of this report is to use the lessons learned from the NIST Camp Fire case study to present a methodology and other considerations about WUI fire incidents that can be used by small and intermediate-sized WUI communities to help develop notification and evacuation plans. The proposed methodology considers the spatial and temporal components of fire spread and the resulting impacts of fire on evacuation to develop an evacuation triangle that can be used as the foundation for notification and evacuation decisions by emergency managers. This report provides communities a path forward for assessing, planning, and implementing a notification/evacuation plan that leverages pre-fire conditions, local knowledge, and during event information to enhance the life safety of civilians and first responders. While additional research will provide further refinements, specifically in the areas of weather forecasting, fire spread modeling, and evacuation modeling, the proposed system outlines a path for community leaders to effectively work with first responders before a fire to assess and prepare the community for WUI fire events that can strike with little or no notice. The methodology provides community leaders with a temporal context of WUI fire events that will enable them to better evaluate different hazard reduction and risk management strategies to enhance the life safety of residents and first responders.

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“…The development of those tools relies on the availability of data. For instance, trigger buffer models need information concerning the time needed by a community to evacuate [ 16 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Roxborough Park Community Wildfire Evacuation Drill: Data Collection and Model Benchmarking

et al. 2023

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Wildfires are increasing in scale, frequency and longevity, and are affecting new locations as environmental conditions change. This paper presents a dataset collected during a community evacuation drill performed in Roxborough Park, Colorado (USA) in 2019. This is a wildland–urban interface community including approximately 900 homes. Data concerning several aspects of community response were collected through observations and surveys: initial population location, pre-evacuation times, route use, and arrival times at the evacuation assembly point. Data were used as inputs to benchmark two evacuation models that adopt different modelling approaches. The WUI-NITY platform and the Evacuation Management System model were applied across a range of scenarios where assumptions regarding pre-evacuation delays and the routes used were varied according to original data collection methods (and interpretation of the data generated). Results are mostly driven by the assumptions adopted for pre-evacuation time inputs. This is expected in communities with a low number of vehicles present on the road and relatively limited traffic congestion. The analysis enabled the sensitivity of the modelling approaches to different datasets to be explored, given the different modelling approaches adopted. The performance of the models were sensitive to the data employed (derived from either observations or self-reporting) and the evacuation phases addressed in them. This indicates the importance of monitoring the impact of including data in a model rather than simply on the data itself, as data affects models in different ways given the modelling methods employed. The dataset is released in open access and is deemed to be useful for future wildfire evacuation modelling calibration and validation efforts.

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Integrating wildfire spread and evacuation times to design safe triggers: Application to two rural communities using PERIL model

Cited by 8 publications

References 18 publications

The verification of wildland–urban interface fire evacuation models

The verification of wildland–urban interface fire evacuation models

WUI fire evacuation and sheltering considerations :

Roxborough Park Community Wildfire Evacuation Drill: Data Collection and Model Benchmarking

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