Integrating species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogeography for two species of Alpine Primula

Abstract

The major intention of the present study was to investigate whether an approach combining the use of niche-based palaeodistribution modeling and phylo-geography would support or modify hypotheses about the Quaternary distributional history derived from phylogeographic methods alone. Our study system comprised two closely related species of Alpine Primula. We used species distribution models based on the extant distribution of the species and last glacial maximum (LGM) climate models to predict the distribution of the two species during the LGM. Phylogeographic data were generated using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). In Primula hirsuta, models of past distribution and phylogeographic data are partly congruent and support the hypothesis of widespread nunatak survival in the Central Alps. Species distribution models (SDMs) allowed us to differentiate between alpine regions that harbor potential nunatak areas and regions that have been colonized from other areas. SDMs revealed that diversity is a good indicator for nunataks, while rarity is a good indicator for peripheral relict populations that were not source for the recolonization of the inner Alps. In P. daonensis, palaeo-distribution models and phylogeographic data are incongruent. Besides the uncertainty inherent to this type of modeling approach (e.g., relatively coarse 1-km grain size), disagreement of models and data may partly be caused by shifts of ecological niche in both species. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that the combination of palaeo-distribution modeling with phylogeographical approaches provides a more differentiated picture of the distributional history of species and partly supports (P. hirsuta) and partly modifies (P. daonensis and P. hirsuta) hypotheses of Quaternary distributional history. Some of the refugial area indicated by palaeodistribution models could not have been identified with phylogeographic data.

Phylogeographic Insights into a Peripheral Refugium: The Importance of Cumulative Effect of Glaciation on the Genetic Structure of Two Endemic Plants

“…In the south western Alps, survival in peripheral refuges and nunataks during the LGM has recently been demonstrated in Primula spp. using both SDM and phylogeographical approaches [12]; however, our results are congruent with previous findings in the Maritime and Ligurian Alps where glaciations seem to have had a low influence on plant distribution and their effect seems to be weakened by high level of postglacial migrations [81]. These findings are more similar to that expected for a Mediterranean mountain region [7, 8] rather than for an Alpine region [16, 58], where patterns were simplified to a great extent by major losses of diversity during glacial periods.…”

“…A detailed understanding of the effects of past climate changes on the distribution and genetic pattern of organisms may help us to better predict the effects of ongoing climate change [9, 10]. It has been recently demonstrated that the combination of paleo-distribution modelling with phylogeographical approaches may led to new interpretations of population genetic patterns and to new hypotheses about glacial survival and postglacial colonization [11, 12, 13]. …”

Paleodistribution modeling suggests glacial refugia in Scandinavia and out‐of‐Tibet range expansion of the Arctic fox

“…The LGM climate over Europe as simulated by CCSM is colder and drier than that of MIROC (Schorr et al. 2012) and allowed us to evaluate modeling performance with two sets of climate data. For the LIG data model projection, we used the only data set available (Otto‐Bliesner et al.…”

Individualistic response to past climate changes: niche differentiation promotes diverging Quaternary range dynamics in the subspecies of Testudo graeca

“…Th e strong range expansion of T. g. graeca since the LGM predicted the ENMs was clearly supported both by neutrality tests ( F S, Tajima ' D and R 2 ), a unimodal mismatch distribution and coalescent-based analyses (EBSP). Alternatively, given the complexity of biogeographical histories, several ad hoc hypotheses could explain these apparently incongruent patterns (Schorr et al 2012). However, the strong range contraction predicted in T. g. marokkensis did not match the population increase described by non-genealogical summary statistics, and neither the results from EBSP analysis, which depicted a slight growth but did not allow rejecting population stability.…”