Integrating Social Dynamics Into Modeling Cigarette and E-Cigarette Use

Abstract

Background. The use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarette) offers potential to facilitate cigarette smoking cessation, yet potentially increases risk of cigarette smoking initiation. This relationship has been primarily modeled in mathematical ways that often do not represent real-world complexities, which could inform decisions regarding local prevention programs or policies. Aims. To develop a model of cigarette and e-cigarette use that combines current research on tobacco use and incorporates real-world geographic and demographic data. Method. We used a platform for developing agent-based models with demographic information representative of the population in Pennsylvania. We developed three models of cigarette and e-cigarette use. The primary outcome for each was the total number of users for cigarette, e-cigarette, and total nicotine. The first model applied current cigarette and e-cigarette data, the second tested the effect of implementing a program of e-cigarette education and policies, and the third considered a social contagion factor, where local schools functioned as a transmission vector. Results. The baseline and social contagion models found an overall decline in cigarette use but an increase in e-cigarette and total nicotine use. The education/policies model had declines in all categories. Sensitivity analysis suggested the importance of nuanced e-cigarette/cigarette interactions when modeling tobacco use. Discussion. Public health campaigns that focus on reducing youth e-cigarette usage can have a large effect. Social contagion should be strongly considered when studying e-cigarette spread. Conclusion. Targeted public health campaigns focused on reducing school prevalence of e-cigarette use may be particularly valuable.

Adolescent Susceptibility to E-Cigarettes: An Update From the 2018 National Youth Tobacco Survey

“…Research evaluating contextual factors for e-cigarette use among adolescents document parents and siblings as important influences regarding use of these products. 17,18 Parent and sibling perceptions 18 and use of e-cigarettes use could be influential factors associated with adolescent susceptibility by increasing perceived or actual accessibility of e-cigarettes, 19 modeling use behaviors, 18,20 -22 and normalizing e-cigarette use. 12,21 Future studies which incorporate specific familial influences such as perceptions of product harm and use of these products may be significant factors to better understand adolescent e-cigarette experimentation and use.…”

Agent-based model of the impact of higher influenza vaccine efficacy on seasonal influenza burden

“…Conditions can interact directly by allowing a state change in one condition to cause a state change in another condition. FRED has been used to model influenza and other diseases and conditions and has been described in detail [24] , [25] , [36] , [37] .…”

Agent-based Investigation of the Impact of Low Rates of Influenza on Next Season Influenza Infections

“…Agent-based modeling can be used to perform highly detailed investigations of possible disease scenarios. The FRED (Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiologic Dynamics) simulation platform [9] is an agent-based modeling platform that was developed in response to the 2009 influenza pandemic and has been used extensively for modeling influenza as well as other infectious and non-infectious conditions [10][11][12][13]. To explore the impact of limited influenza activity on subsequent year influenza burden, we used FRED to model 2 season influenza scenarios under a variety of assumptions on the impact of natural infection on second year immunity and a variable degree of antigenic relatedness of first and second year circulating strains.…”