Integrating seasonal climate forecasts into adaptive social protection in the Sahel

Abstract

Sahelian West Africa is a region of high year-to-year climate variability that can significantly impact on communities and livelihoods. Adaptive social protection (ASP) is being introduced in the region to support vulnerable people through enabling more effective responses to climate shocks, bridging social protection with disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The ASPIRE (Adaptive Social Protection: Information for enhanced REsilience) project aimed to provide technical support to the World Bank's Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Programme through demonstrating the use of climate forecasts in ASP and promoting dialogue between climate and social protection stakeholders.Here we discuss lessons learned in the project, highlighting challenges and opportunities for including climate forecasts in early warning systems to inform ASP. We provide recommendations to help achieve ASP systems designed to use climate forecasts, arguing that tailored seasonal forecast products have potential in some countries to improve the lead time of interventions to address climate-induced disasters. Critical to this is continued investment in underpinning science and capacity building of climate and social protection stakeholders, as well as strengthened dialogue between actors to co-develop climate forecasts that provide actionable information.

Using climate financing wisely to address multiple crises

“…During crises, climate-sensitive investment in food, land, and water systems can contribute not just to meeting basic needs, but also to transforming livelihoods and strengthening social cohesion. Examples include, for pre-crisis, forecast-based mechanisms, with allocation of financial resources and interventions agreed in advance for the implementation of early actions [89]. Anticipatory action in the form of cash transfers ahead of forecast flooding in Bangladesh (see Table 1 [23]) is an example of how punctual, short-term yet timely interventions-sometimes delivered by humanitarian agencies-can have mid-to long-term benefits in increased resilience.…”

Farmers’ Perception of Indigenous Forecast and Climate Information in West Africa: an Evidence-based Review

“…In West Africa, agriculture remains the source of employment for more than 80% of the population however it is highly vulnerable to climate change, especially rainy change because the irrigated area is less than 5% (FAO and AfBD, 2015). Farmers" understanding of rainfall change is relative to rainfall duration, starting, ending, regularity, types of the rainy season, and precipitation (Limantol et al, 2016;Daron et al, 2021;Adaawen, 2021).…”

“…(5) How does scientific climate information influence the planning of agricultural activities by the farmers? Globally, two approach approaches are used to understand the perception of indigenous forecast and climate information: focus groups and/or household surveys (Carla Roncoli et al, 2008;Adaawen, 2021;Daron et al, 2021).…”

Diverse skill of seasonal dynamical models in forecasting South Asian monsoon precipitation and the influence of ENSO and IOD

“…Droughts and floods can lead to widespread adverse impacts on livelihoods and the economy, especially in the agriculture (Ray et al 2015;Aryal et al 2020) and water (Srivastava et al 2020) sectors. Seasonal forecasts, if skilful, can provide information on how precipitation may deviate from normal several months ahead, supporting governments, organisations, and communities in preparing for anomalous climatic conditions and mitigating humanitarian disasters (e.g., Golding et al 2019;Bett et al 2020;Daron et al 2020).…”