Integrating Real-Time Meteorological Conditions into a Novel Fire Spread Model for Grasslands

Abstract

Accurate comprehension of grassland fires is imperative for maintaining ecological stability. In this study, we propose a novel fire model that incorporates real-time meteorological conditions. Our methodology integrates key meteorological factors including relative humidity, temperature, degree of solidification of combustible materials, and wind speed. These factors are embedded into a comprehensive function that determines both the downwind and upwind spreading speeds of the fire. Additionally, the model accommodates fire spread in the absence of wind by incorporating the direction perpendicular to the wind, with wind speed set to zero. By precisely determining wind speed, the model enables real-time calculation of fire spread speeds in all directions. Under stable wind conditions, the fire spread area typically adopts an elliptical shape. Leveraging ellipse properties, we define the aspect ratio as a function related to wind speed. Consequently, with knowledge of the fire duration, the model accurately estimates the area of fire spread. Our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of this model in predicting and evaluating fires in the Hulunbuir Grassland. The model offers an innovative method for quantifying grassland fires, contributing significantly to the understanding and management of grassland ecosystems.