Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

Abstract

Abstract. Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night-and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-classcomposite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decisionmaking.

Volunteered Geo-Dynamic Information for Health-Risk Exposure Assessment - A FRESHER Case Study

“…Considering the daily temporal cycle, current approaches can be broadly categorized as (1) simplified binary daytime/night-time models (e.g. McPherson et al, 2004;Freire & Aubrecht, 2012), or (2) multiple time-slice models that account for continuous variation in human activities over the course of a day (e.g. Aubrecht et al, 2014;Martin et al, 2015).…”

Reviews of Geospatial Information Technology and Collaborative Data Delivery for Disaster Risk Management

“…In addition to spatially-detailed population mapping, temporal variety of population distribution, or people mobility, has been regarded important for disaster risk management [97]. Several studies presented frameworks and practices of spatio-temporal population mapping by measuring people's movement between daytime and nighttime [34,97] and spatio-temporal patterns of commutes between home and work [98,99].…”

“…Several studies presented frameworks and practices of spatio-temporal population mapping by measuring people's movement between daytime and nighttime [34,97] and spatio-temporal patterns of commutes between home and work [98,99]. The frameworks are extensible to other data for better accuracy and broader regions.…”

Impact of Temporal Population Distribution on Earthquake Loss Estimation: A Case Study on Sylhet, Bangladesh

“…For damage assessment, especially for unpredictable and rapid onset hazards such as earthquakes, detailed building inventory databases with population data are essential (Freire 2010). Updated and detailed spatial and temporal population distribution data for an area will also be useful for disaster risk mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery, and rehabilitation (Freire 2010;Freire and Aubrecht 2012;Sutton et al 2003). Population distribution in an urban area is directly related to their mobility, activity, and functionality.…”

“…Their statistical analysis shows that the distribution of different public sector facilities (for example, school, college, hospital, market, government office) and infrastructure also influence population distribution. Besides these approaches, Freire and Aubrecht (2012) introduced dasymetric mapping to disaggregate the population census data for daytime and nighttime in the metropolitan area of Lisbon, Portugal. Their goal was to analyze variable spatiotemporal exposure of the population to earthquake hazard.…”