Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use

Abstract

Abstract:The telecoupling framework is an integrated concept that emphasises socioeconomic and environmental interactions between distant places. Viewed through the lens of the telecoupling framework, land use and food consumption are linked across local to global scales by decision-making agents and trade flows. Quantitatively modelling the dynamics of telecoupled systems like this could be achieved using numerous different modelling approaches. For example, previous approaches to modelling global food trade have often used partial equilibrium economic models, whereas recent approaches to representing local land use decision-making have widely used agent-based modelling. System dynamics models are well established for representing aggregated flows and stores of products and values between distant locations. We argue that hybrid computational models will be useful for capitalising on the strengths these different modelling approaches each have for representing the various concepts in the telecoupling framework. However, integrating multiple modelling approaches into hybrid models faces challenges, including data requirements and uncertainty assessment. To help guide the development of hybrid models for investigating sustainability through the telecoupling framework here we examine important representational and modelling considerations in the context of global food trade and local land use. We report on the development of our own model that incorporates multiple modelling approaches in a modular approach to negotiate the trade-offs between ideal representation and modelling resource constraints. In this initial modelling our focus is on land use and food trade in and between USA, China and Brazil, but also accounting for the rest of the world. We discuss the challenges of integrating multiple modelling approaches to enable analysis of agents, flows, and feedbacks in the telecoupled system. Our analysis indicates differences in representation of agency are possible and should be expected in integrated models. Questions about telecoupling dynamics should be the primary driver in selecting modelling approaches, tempered by resource availability. There is also a need to identify appropriate modelling assessment and analysis tools and learn from their application in other domains.

System Dynamics of Polysilicon for Solar Photovoltaics: A Framework for Investigating the Energy Security of Renewable Energy Supply Chains

“…SD can facilitate communication among stakeholders, clarify mental models, analyze the impacts of policy interventions, and support strategic decision-making [44], and has been applied to a broad set of problems in business, social, ecological, and economic systems [44,45]. An adaptation of feedback control system principles, SD is utilized to represent how dynamic systems and processes are structured and to understand how their performance could be improved [46]. The methodology has three key components:…”

“…The stock/flow/feedback/decision-rule structure of SD models can be represented as a set of finite difference equations that can be simulated using standard numerical methods [46], and the models often utilize qualitative and/or quantitative empirical data to determine the strength of feedback relationships and derive parameters related to decision rules [48]. Extensive testing of the structure and parameter values of SD models can help to build confidence in both assumed feedback mechanisms and resulting system behavior, particularly when comparing model outputs to known historical data [44,46,49].…”

“…Extensive testing of the structure and parameter values of SD models can help to build confidence in both assumed feedback mechanisms and resulting system behavior, particularly when comparing model outputs to known historical data [44,46,49].…”

Land-use change in a telecoupled world: the relevance and applicability of the telecoupling framework in the case of banana plantation expansion in Laos

“…However, less attention has been given to the immaterial dimensions of telecoupling, and to our knowledge, only two studies have engaged in empirical analysis of how telecouplings influence local land-use change (i.e., Fox 2015, Leisz et al 2016). One reason for this lack of study is that the framework still faces a number of challenges for empirical application in case study research (Friis et al 2016a, GLP 2016, and although there have been calls and emerging advancements for methodological operationalization through quantitative and modeling approaches (Liu et al 2015b, Millington et al 2017, there is still a need for critical qualitative engagement with the framework.…”

Interactions between Food Security and Land Use in the Context of Global Change

“…Normally, as editors, we would seek to provide some level of synthesis from the findings presented herein, as a contribution to the effort to generate generalized knowledge. However, we find ourselves hampered in this endeavor by two issues that are emblematic of the land change field as a whole.First, while the Special Issue consists of a very small sample of the rapidly growing literature on land change, the contributions nevertheless address a wide array of land systems and focal processes, including agricultural intensification through the lens of telecoupling [16], the socioeconomic impacts of increasing production of a single crop commodity [17], spatial co-occurrence of food insecurity and biodiversity [18], increasing food security through the use of conservation agriculture [19], assessing whether food production can meet future needs [20,21], and developing strategies for modeling land use, food production and trade [22]. Furthermore, the studies address these issues across several continents (i.e., South America, Europe and Asia) and concern varying agricultural systems (i.e., focusing on the production of vegetables or grains, with the latter destined either for direct human consumption or for livestock production).…”