Integrating land use and climate change models with stakeholder priorities to evaluate habitat connectivity change: a case study in southern Québec

Lucet, Valentin; Gonzalez, Andrew

doi:10.1007/s10980-022-01516-7

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…To recreate an understanding of the past without written records, one can tap into local knowledge (Jessen et al, 2022). While this approach has been taken in several scientific fields, such as landscape ecology (Lauer & Aswani, 2010; Lucet & Gonzalez, 2022), botany (Popoola & Obembe, 2013), and entomology (Segura et al, 2004), it has not been applied to the field of pathology and the study of yield. One method is the semi‐structured questionnaire, which allows the collection of both quantitative and qualitative data through the use of multiple‐choice questions, ranking exercises, and open‐ended questions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Using local knowledge to reconstruct climate‐mediated changes in disease dynamics and yield—A case study on Arabica coffee in its native range

Ayalew,

Hylander,

Börjeson

et al. 2024

Plants People Planet

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Societal Impact StatementAdapting agriculture to climate change requires an understanding of the long‐term relationship between climate, disease dynamics, and yield. While some countries have monitored major crop diseases for decades or centuries, comparable data is scarce or non‐existent for many countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. For this, a novel approach was developed to reconstruct climate‐mediated changes in disease dynamics and yield. Here, a case study on Arabica coffee in its area of origin demonstrates how to combine local knowledge, climate data, and spatial field surveys to reconstruct disease and yield time series and to postulate and test hypotheses for climate–disease–yield relationships.Summary While some countries have monitored crop diseases for several decades or centuries, other countries have very limited historical time series. In such areas, we lack data on long‐term patterns and drivers of disease dynamics, which is important for developing climate‐resilient disease management strategies. We adopted a novel approach, combining local knowledge, climate data, and spatial field surveys to understand long‐term climate‐mediated changes in disease dynamics in coffee agroforestry systems. For this, we worked with 58 smallholder farmers in southwestern Ethiopia, the area of origin of Arabica coffee. The majority of farmers perceived an increase in coffee leaf rust and a decrease in coffee berry disease, whereas perceptions of changes in coffee wilt disease and Armillaria root rot were highly variable among farmers. Climate data supported farmers' understanding of the climatic drivers (increased temperature, less rainy days) of these changes. Temporal disease‐climate relationships were matched by spatial disease‐climate relationships, as expected with space‐for‐time substitution. Understanding long‐term disease dynamics and yield is crucial to adapt disease management to climate change. Our study demonstrates how to combine local knowledge, climate data and spatial field surveys to reconstruct disease time series and postulate hypotheses for disease‐climate relationships in areas where few long‐term time series exist.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Using local knowledge to reconstruct climate‐mediated changes in disease dynamics and yield—A case study on Arabica coffee in its native range

Ayalew,

Hylander,

Börjeson

et al. 2024

Plants People Planet

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“…The St-Lawrence Lowlands study region has unique biogeographic characteristics, significant biodiversity and is affected by urbanization, agricultural expansion and habitat fragmentation, especially of forests and wetlands (Albert et al, 2017;Dupras et al, 2016;Lucet & Gonzalez, 2022;Mitchell et al, 2015;Rayfield et al, 2021). This ecoregion is one of eleven priority places within the "Pan-Canadian Approach to Transforming Species at Risk Conservation in Canada" (ECCC, 2018;Jobin et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid evaluation of habitat connectivity change to safeguard multispecies persistence in human-transformed landscapes

Oehri,

Wood,

Touratier

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Protecting habitat connectivity in fragmented landscapes is essential for safeguarding biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. Following the Post-2020 Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) there is a clear science-policy need to assess habitat connectivity and track its change over time to inform conservation planning.In response to this need we describe an analytical, multi-indicator and multispecies approach for the rapid assessment of habitat connectivity at fine spatial grain and at the extent of an entire ecoregion. Out of 69 connectivity indicators we found through a literature review, we identified a key-set of nine indicators that align with the Essential Biodiversity Variables framework and that are suitable to guide rapid action for connectivity and conservation targets in the KM-GBF. Using these selected indicators, we mapped and evaluated connectivity change from 2011 to 2021 across the ecoregion of the St-Lawrence Lowlands in Quebec (∼30,000 km2) for seven ecoprofile species representing regional forest habitat needs. For the majority of these ecoprofile species, trends over the last decade indicate a decline in effective connected area and metapopulation carrying capacity, mainly via a division of large contiguous habitat into smaller fragments, whereas total habitat area largely remained unchanged.These results highlight that trends in habitat area and connectivity are not necessarily correlated and the urgent need to conserve and restore connectivity in the St-Lawrence Lowlands, in order to meet regional targets under the KM-GBF. Our general approach enables a comprehensive evaluation of connectivity for regional spatial planning for biodiversity. We develop an R-tool to support this analysis and that can be extended to other conservation planning efforts for connectivity.

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A framework to support the identification of critical habitat for wide-ranging species at risk under climate change

Leston,

Dénes,

Docherty

et al. 2024

Biodivers Conserv

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To recover species at risk, it is necessary to identify habitat critical to their recovery. Challenges for species with large ranges (thousands of square kilometres) include delineating management unit boundaries within which habitat use differs from other units, along with assessing any differences among units in amounts of and threats to habitat over time. We developed a reproducible framework to support identification of critical habitat for wide-ranging species at risk. The framework (i) reviews species distribution and life history; (ii) delineates management units across the range; (iii) evaluates and compares current and (iv) potential future habitat and population size and (v) prioritizes areas within management units based on current and future conditions under various scenarios of climate change and land-use. We used Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) and Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) in Canada as case studies. Using geographically weighted regression models and cluster analysis to measure spatial variation in model coefficients, we found geographic differences in habitat association only for Canada Warbler. Using other models to predict current habitat amount for each species in different management units, then future habitat amount under land use and climate change, we projected that: (1) Canada Warbler populations would decrease in Alberta but increase in Nova Scotia and (2) Wood Thrush populations would increase under most scenarios run in Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, but not in Ontario. By comparing results from future scenarios and spatial prioritization exercises, our framework supports identification of critical habitat in ways that incorporate climate and land-use projections.

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Integrating land use and climate change models with stakeholder priorities to evaluate habitat connectivity change: a case study in southern Québec

Cited by 7 publications

References 65 publications

Using local knowledge to reconstruct climate‐mediated changes in disease dynamics and yield—A case study on Arabica coffee in its native range

Using local knowledge to reconstruct climate‐mediated changes in disease dynamics and yield—A case study on Arabica coffee in its native range

Rapid evaluation of habitat connectivity change to safeguard multispecies persistence in human-transformed landscapes

A framework to support the identification of critical habitat for wide-ranging species at risk under climate change

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