Integrating Fast and Frugal Heuristics with a Model of Memory‐based Cue Generation

Abstract

Although the fast and frugal heuristics have been studied extensively, relatively little attention has been paid to how cues are generated to be used within the heuristics. The goal of this paper is to propose and test a memory-based model of how cues are generated and used in cue-based inferences. The current study advances theory by integrating the fast and frugal heuristics with HyGene, a memory-based model of how decision makers generate and evaluate hypotheses. Using archival data in which memory retrieval variables were not directly manipulated, we demonstrate that participants' cue selection behavior is consistent with memory-based retrieval. Further, by directly manipulating memory retrieval within a cue-based stock-forecasting task, we demonstrate that memory processes underlie cue use. Participants' cue use varied depending on the relationship between cue validity and the frequency with which the cues were seen during learning. The HyGene model provided the best account of the empirical data, providing further evidence for the critical role of memory in judgment and decision making.Note: The G 2 , delta BIC, and BF for each model was computed with respect to a random choice model. So lower G 2 and higher delta BIC and BF are indicative of better fit to Newell's data. The BF is derived from the delta BIC. AIC, Akaike information criterion; BF, Bayes factor; BIC, Bayesian information criterion.Memory-based Cue Generation 491 A. Lawrence et al.

Retro-cueing in multi-attribute choices: The influence of memory availability on strategy selection and attribute weights

“…By using a multi-method approach, we found that the availability of information held in memory had a two-fold effect on decision making, namely the cued option's increased weight and an increase in more compensatory information search behavior. This result corresponds with a growing number of studies, which emphasize the role of memory during judgment and decision making (Lawrence et al, 2018;Platzer et al, 2014;Renkewitz & Jahn, 2012) and therefore it is highly relevant to both cognitive and applied researchers who are interested in understanding judgment and decision making processes. It is especially relevant to marketers who aim to presenting products to their customers in a manner that optimizes their profit.…”

“…Recent research has proposed that the availability of information in memory is an important source of influence on judgment and decision making (Lawrence et al, 2018;Platzer et al, 2014). This study builds on these results and extends them to preferential choice tasks, which are frequently studied in consumer research.…”

“…Another recent study points toward the importance of taking memory processes into account when explaining multi-attribute decision making (Lawrence et al, 2018). The authors showed that the availability of attributes in memory influences the extent to which they were used in the decision making process.…”

“…Recent research has indeed shown that increasing the availability of attribute informationfor instance, via visually salient cuescan bias purchase decisions in favor of the product that is preferred by this attribute (Bordalo, Gennaioli, & Shleifer, 2013;Milosavljevic, Navalpakkam, Koch, & Rangel, 2012). However, increasing the availability of one attribute also influences search behavior and subsequently drives choices (Lawrence, Thomas, & Dougherty, 2018;Mandel & Johnson, 2002;Platzer, Bröder, & Heck, 2014). A better understanding of how memory availability influences consumer choices is therefore necessary to make consumer decisions predictable (Wright, 1975) and to avoid unintended consequences.…”

A new way to guide consumer's choice: Retro-cueing alters the availability of product information in memory

“…Recent research also showed that the availability of attribute information in memory influences information search, which can also alter subsequent choice behavior (Lawrence, Thomas, & Dougherty, 2018;Platzer, Bröder, & Heck, 2014). Consequently, despite the car dealer's intention to increase the weight of only one specific attribute in the opening scenario, changing the availability of one attribute can change the weight of the remaining attributes as well.…”