Integrating Exposure and Effect Distributions with the Ecotoxicity Risk Calculator: Case Studies with Crop Protection Products

Abstract

Risk curves describe the relationship between cumulative probability and magnitude of effect and thus express far more information than risk quotients. However, their adoption has remained limited in ecological risk assessment. Therefore, we developed the Ecotoxicity Risk Calculator (ERC) to simplify the derivation of risk curves, which can be used to inform risk management decisions. Case studies are presented with crop protection products, highlighting the utility of the ERC at incorporating various data sources, including surface water modeling estimates, monitoring observations, and species sensitivity distributions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:321–330. © 2020 Syngenta Crop Protection, LLC. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC)

Development of a Bayesian network for probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides

“…They also allow for an estimation of likelihood of potential ecosystem impact and their magnitude (Solomon et al, 1996). Recently, an "Ecotoxicity Risk Calculator" was presented by Dreier et al (2020) that uses joint probability curves. It is able to express more information than a single value risk quotient, as it depicts the relationship between cumulative probability and magnitude of effect.…”

“…It is able to express more information than a single value risk quotient, as it depicts the relationship between cumulative probability and magnitude of effect. The use of both effect and exposure distributions enables a more powerful approach for risk assessment and communication (Dreier et al, 2020). However, most of these methods do not provide exact quantifications of magnitudes and likelihoods of potential effects, they do not make quantitative predictions and only estimate relative risks (Solomon et al (2000), Hall et al (2000)), which can be hard for decision-makers to understand and interpret (Verdonck et al, 2003).…”

“…decline in species abundance (Mitchell et al, 2021). Dreier et al (2020) pointed out that the use of effect and exposure distribution allow for a competent risk assessment and communication approach. In their "ecotoxicity risk calculator", they used joint probability curves/ risk curve based approach that is able to show the connection between cumulative probability and magnitude of effect (Dreier et al, 2020).…”

“…Dreier et al (2020) pointed out that the use of effect and exposure distribution allow for a competent risk assessment and communication approach. In their "ecotoxicity risk calculator", they used joint probability curves/ risk curve based approach that is able to show the connection between cumulative probability and magnitude of effect (Dreier et al, 2020). Although this might be an advantage of using joint probability curves, probabilistic risk quotients can give a better sense of the risk estimates and are useful for ranking of different scenarios as well as prioritizing among alternative risk scenarios (Campbell et al, 2000).…”

Development of a Bayesian network for probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides

“…They also allow for an estimation of the likelihood of potential ecosystem impact and their magnitude (Solomon et al, 1996). Recently, an “Ecotoxicity Risk Calculator” was presented by Dreier et al (2020) that uses joint probability curves. It is able to provide more information than a single‐value risk quotient, as it depicts the relationship between cumulative probability and magnitude of effect.…”