Integrating counts, telemetry, and non‐invasive DNA data to improve demographic monitoring of an endangered species

Moeller, Anna K.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Neufeld, Lalenia; Bradley, Mark P.; Manseau, Micheline; Wilson, Paul J.; McFarlane, Samantha; Lukacs, Paul M.; Hebblewhite, Mark

doi:10.1002/ecs2.3443

Cited by 8 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…First, we analyzed the input data sets independently to produce annual demographic estimates and associated error in model inputs. Second, we created an observation model within the IPM that drew from distributions of vital rate estimates and errors from step 1 (Besbeas et al, 2002; Moeller et al, 2021). The two‐stage approach allows for better mixing of MCMC chains and faster convergence of the model.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large herbivores in a partially migratory population search for the ideal free home

Martin

Hebblewhite

Merrill

2022

Ecology

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Migration is a tactic used across taxa to access resources in temporally heterogenous landscapes. Populations that migrate can attain higher abundances because such movements allow access to higher quality resources, or reduction in predation risk resulting in increased fitness. However, most migratory species occur in partially migratory populations, a mix of migratory and nonmigratory individuals. It is thought that the portion of migrants in a partial migration population is maintained either through (1) a population-level evolutionary stable state where counteracting density-dependent vital rates act on migrants and residents to balance fitness or (2) conditional migration, where the propensity to migrate is influenced by the individual's state. However, in many respects, migration is also a form of habitat selection and the proportion of migrants and residents may be the result of density-dependent habitat selection. Here, we test whether the theory of Ideal Free Distribution (IFD) can explain the coexistence of different migratory tactics in a partially migratory population. IFD predicts individuals exhibit density-dependent vital rates and select different migratory tactics to maximize individual fitness resulting in equal fitness (λ) between tactics. We tested the predictions of IFD in a partially migratory elk population that declined by 70% with 19 years of demographic data and migratory tactic switching rates from >300 individuals. We found evidence of density dependence for resident pregnancy and adult female survival providing a fitness incentive to switch tactics. Despite differences in vital rates between migratory tactics, mean λ (fitness) was equal. However, as predicted by the IFD, individuals switched tactics toward those of higher fitness. Our analysis reveals that partial migration may be driven by tactic selection that follows the ideal free distribution. These findings reinforce that migration across taxa may be a polymorphic behavior in large herbivores where migratory tactic selection is determined by differential costs and benefits, mediated by density dependence.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large herbivores in a partially migratory population search for the ideal free home

Martin

Hebblewhite

Merrill

2022

Ecology

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“…Note that the penned population is only relevant to the Klinse‐Za herd. Figure adapted from Moeller et al ( 2021 )…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To test the effectiveness of recovery actions, we estimated population demographic vital rates, population growth (λ), and population abundances before and after implementation of recovery actions using an integrated population model (IPM; Besbeas et al, 2002 ; Brooks et al, 2004 ; Messmer et al, 2020 ; Schaub & Kéry, 2012 ) adapted from a recently developed model for caribou in Jasper National Park that uses a two‐stage approach (Moeller et al, 2021 ). Integrated population models provide a statistical framework to integrate a combination of demographic data types with varying levels of certainty to estimate population growth and demographic parameters (Schaub & Abadi, 2011 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We adapted the IPM used in Moeller et al ( 2021 ) to evaluate the single‐ and multiple‐recovery action subpopulations (please refer to Appendix S1 : Section S3 for equations, and Figure 2 for data timeline and IPM structure). In Klinse‐Za, we estimated separate, annual, female‐only population parameters, for the animals that experienced wolf removal only, and for the animals that experienced maternity penning and wolf removal.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following Moeller et al ( 2021 ), we used vague priors for survival and recruitment rate estimates using a normal distribution set to the mean of all rate values from the input data sources and a large variance. These priors were truncated between −10 and 10 such that they led to reasonable values for the intercept of the linear predictor on the logit scale.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Demographic responses of nearly extirpated endangered mountain caribou to recovery actions in Central British Columbia

McNay¹,

Lamb

Giguere³

et al. 2022

Ecological Applications

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Recovering endangered species is a difficult and often controversial task that challenges status quo land uses. Southern Mountain caribou are a threatened ecotype of caribou that historically ranged in southwestern Canada and northwestern USA and epitomize the tension between resource extraction, biodiversity conservation, and Indigenous Peoples' treaty rights. Human-induced habitat alteration is considered the ultimate cause of caribou population declines, whereby an increased abundance of primary prey-such as moose and deer-elevates predator populations and creates unsustainable caribou mortality. Here we focus on the Klinse-Za and Quintette subpopulations, part of the endangered Central Group of Southern Mountain caribou in British Columbia. These subpopulations were trending toward immediate extirpation until a collaborative group initiated recovery by implementing two short-term recovery actions. We test the effectiveness of these recovery actionsmaternity penning of adult females and their calves, and the reduction of a primary predator, wolves-in increasing vital rates and population growth.Klinse-Za received both recovery actions, whereas Quintette only received wolf reductions, providing an opportunity to test efficacy between recovery actions. Between 1995 and 2021, we followed 162 collared female caribou for 414 animal-years to estimate survival and used aerial counts to estimate population abundance and calf recruitment. We combined these data in an integrated population model to estimate female population growth, total population abundance, and recovery action effectiveness. Results suggest that the subpopulations were declining rapidly (λ = 0.90-0.93) before interventions and would have been functionally extirpated (<10 animals) within 10-15 years. Wolf reduction increased population growth rates by ~0.12 for each subpopulation.Wolf reduction halted the decline of Quintette caribou and allowed them to increase (λ = 1.05), but alone would have only stabilized the Klinse-Za

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Effectiveness of population‐based recovery actions for threatened southern mountain caribou

Lamb,

Williams,

Boutin

et al. 2024

Ecological Applications

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Habitat loss is affecting many species, including the southern mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population in western North America. Over the last half century, this threatened caribou population's range and abundance have dramatically contracted. An integrated population model was used to analyze 51 years (1973–2023) of demographic data from 40 southern mountain caribou subpopulations to assess the effectiveness of population‐based recovery actions at increasing population growth. Reducing potential limiting factors on threatened caribou populations offered a rare opportunity to identify the causes of decline and assess methods of recovery. Southern mountain caribou abundance declined by 51% between 1991 and 2023, and 37% of subpopulations were functionally extirpated. Wolf reduction was the only recovery action that consistently increased population growth when applied in isolation, and combinations of wolf reductions with maternal penning or supplemental feeding provided rapid growth but were applied to only four subpopulations. As of 2023, recovery actions have increased the abundance of southern mountain caribou by 52%, compared to a simulation with no interventions. When predation pressure was reduced, rapid population growth was observed, even under contemporary climate change and high levels of habitat loss. Unless predation is reduced, caribou subpopulations will continue to be extirpated well before habitat conservation and restoration can become effective.

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Integrating counts, telemetry, and non‐invasive DNA data to improve demographic monitoring of an endangered species

Abstract: Hebblewhite. 2021. Integrating counts, telemetry, and non-invasive DNA data to improve demographic monitoring of an endangered species. Ecosphere.

Cited by 8 publications

References 58 publications

Large herbivores in a partially migratory population search for the ideal free home

Large herbivores in a partially migratory population search for the ideal free home

Demographic responses of nearly extirpated endangered mountain caribou to recovery actions in Central British Columbia

Effectiveness of population‐based recovery actions for threatened southern mountain caribou

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