Integrating climate change and land use impacts to explore forest conservation policy

Abstract

A scenario-based approach to the impacts of land use and climate change can help in identifying future policy directions. This study models the impacts of different land use and climate change scenarios on the forest ecosystems of South Korea to identify national-scale forest policy options. Climatically suitable forest areas for 1,031 climate vulnerable plant species were identified for current time and for 2050. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections. We built forest conversion models and created four 2050 forest scenarios: (1) forest loss continues at current rates; (2) similar loss, but with conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation and overall reduction of loss by 50%. We then crossed the forest conversion models with the climate-driven change in species richness, and categorized current forest areas into four classes to offer forest policy alternatives. By deploying the scenarios which preserve climatically suitable forests, the average species richness where forests converting to other land uses reduced significantly. We suggest conserving forests with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of forest plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

Integrating the Rabinowitz rarity framework with a National Plant Inventory in South Korea

“…Our study also found high species richness of rarity classes and of nationally listed endangered and endemic species in each rarity class in these mountains (Figure and Figure ), which indicates our simple approach can identify high biodiversity areas for rare species. We suggest that further field surveys in these areas could help identify high priority plant conservation areas, that biological monitoring focused on tracking populations of narrow geographic range plant species be implemented in the northeastern parts of South Korea, and that regional urban development and land use plans should consider the preservation of the high biodiversity in this area (Choe & Thorne, ).…”