Integrating Circular Economy Strategies with Low-Carbon Scenarios: Lithium Use in Electric Vehicles

Abstract

Electrification of the transport sector will support its decarbonization, yet significantly change material requirements. This calls for an integrated modeling approach internalizing metal demand-supply dynamics in low-carbon scenarios to support the Paris agreement on climate change and sustainable material circulation. Here we develop a step towards the integrated simulation of energy-materials scenarios by unifying a stock-flow dynamics model for low-carbon scenarios using linear programming. The modeling framework incorporates lithium supply from both mines and end-of-life (EoL) recycling for projected use in Electric Vehicles on a global basis.The results show that supply constraints, which could become apparent from around 2030 in the case of current recycling rates (<1%), would impede the deployment of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), leading to the generation of an additional 300 Mt-CO2 of emissions for vehicle operation in 2050. Another important finding is that increasing the recycling rate to 80% could substantially relieve restrictions on the introduction of BEVs without requiring primary supply from natural deposits far beyond historical rates of expansion. While EoL recycling is important from a long-term perspective, an EoL-oriented strategy has little effect on the short/medium-term (such as to 2030) lithium demand-supply balance because of exponential demand growth and long living batteries.Importantly, findings in this study emphasize the necessity of tackling climate change and resource circulation in an integrated manner.

Understanding the Behaviors of λ-MnO2 in Electrochemical Lithium Recovery: Key Limiting Factors and a Route to the Enhanced Performance

“…On account of rapidly growing markets of mobile devices, electric vehicles, and even large-scale energy storage systems, recent years have witnessed unprecedentedly large lithium consumption. − Demands for lithium are also on a steep rise, and the price of lithium increased by more than two times within the past decade. − Currently, major lithium sources include Li + -rich brine lakes, whose lithium ion concentration is generally larger than 500 mg/L. Meanwhile, these brine lakes are located at limited areas of South America, and it is thereby difficult to secure the lithium supply with a certain level of independence from diverse external (e.g., political) factors.…”

Lifespans of passenger cars in Europe: empirical modelling of fleet turnover dynamics

“…In literature, cohort models are the instrument of choice [14][15][16][17]: they understand the car stock as the set of all cars registered in a country at a given time. New cars join, as people buy them from manufacturers and register them in the country (new registrations) or import used cars from foreign markets 1 .…”

Considering Material Cycles for a Transition to Low-Carbon Energy Systems in Aotearoa/New Zealand: A Systematic Review

“…However, usually, they are global models and either focus on material demand or lifecycle emissions. Thus, developing a model that encompasses material demand and the implications of the circular economy in the supply chain together with environmental impacts could expand the understanding of low-carbon transitions [69].…”