Integrating a Climate Change Assessment Tool into Stakeholder-Driven Water Management Decision-Making Processes in California

Abstract

There is an emerging consensus in the scientific community that climate change has the potential to significantly alter prevailing hydrologic patterns in California over the course of the 21st Century. This is of profound importance for a system where large investments have been made in hydraulic infrastructure that has been designed and is operated to harmonize dramatic temporal and spatial water supply and water demand variability. Recent work by the authors led to the creation of an integrated hydrology/water management climate change impact assessment framework that can be used to identify tradeoffs between important ecosystem services provided by the California water system associated with future climate change and to evaluate possible adaptation strategies. In spite of the potential impact of climate change, and the availability of a tool for investigating its dimensions, actual water management decision-making processes in California have yet to fully integrate climate change analysis into their planning dialogues. This paper presents an overview of decision-making processes ranked based on the application of a 3S: Sensitivity, Significance, and Stakeholder support, standard, which demonstrates that while climate change is a crucial factor in virtually all water-related decision making in California, it has not typically been considered, at least in any analytical sense. The three highest ranked processes are described in more detail, in particular the role that the new analytical framework could play in arriving at more resilient water management decisions. The authors will engage with stakeholders in Springer 316 Water Resour Manage (2007) 21: [315][316][317][318][319][320][321][322][323][324][325][326][327][328][329] these three processes, in hope of moving climate change research from the academic to the policy making arena.

Water Allocation as a Planning Tool to Minimise Water Use Conflicts in the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro North Basin, Kenya

“…The tool operates on the premise that water supply is defined by the amount of precipitation that falls on a watershed or a series of watersheds, with the supply progressively becoming depleted through natural watershed processes, human demands and interventions, or enhanced through watershed accretions. These processes are governed by a water balance model concept that defines watershed scale evaporative demands, rainfall-runoff processes, groundwater recharge, and irrigation demands (Yates et al 2005a, b;Purkey et al 2007).…”

“…Simulation allows the prediction and evaluation of "what if" scenarios and water policies such as water conservation programs, demand projections, hydrologic changes, new infrastructure and changes in allocations or operations (Raskin et al 1992;Yates et al 2005a, b;Purkey et al 2007;SEI 2008). Thus WEAP is considered as an integrated water management tool for evaluating water use and allocation with a greater focus on balancing supply and demand in a swift and transparent way.…”

A framework for assessing flood frequency based on climate projection information

“…This approach is first order in that we do not account for developing model physics and parameters. The approach is well supported in the literature of assessing hydrologic impacts through offline hydrology models as opposed to hydrology models embedded within climate models (e.g., Miller et al, 2003;Mauer, 2007;Christensen and Lettenmaier, 2007;Purkey et al, 2007). For example, although one of the inputs into the SAC-SMA model is potential evapotranspiration (PET) and PET may be altered in a changing climate, the value was not altered as part of this study.…”

Agricultural Sustainability

“…Thus, for climate impact assessments to be useful they must be conducted at a scale which is fine enough for regional and local water managers to integrate research findings into their planning and adaption efforts. One tool that has helped water resource managers integrate climate change projections into their decision making process is the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system (Yates et al 2005a;Yates et al 2005b;Purkey et al 2007). WEAP is a modeling platform that enables integrated assessment of a watershed's climate, hydrology, land use, infrastructure, and water management priorities.…”