Integrated Risk of Progress-Based Costs and Schedule Delays in Construction Projects

Pehlivan, Salahi; Öztemir, Ali Erhan

doi:10.1080/10429247.2018.1439636

Cited by 28 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…e fundamental and direct impact of COVID-19 on tunnel construction was schedule delay. Similar to traditional risk impacts identified in studies such as Pehlivan andÖztemir [37], Hossen et al [32], and Eshtehardian and Khodaverdi [27], shortage of workers, materials, machines, and site accessibility had greatly hindered the schedule of the tunnel construction projects at the early outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. To catch up with the schedule delay, different strategies were implemented to address the risk issues identified.…”

Section: E Impacts Of Covid-19 On Tunnel Construction Projectsmentioning

confidence: 71%

Risk Identification and Responses of Tunnel Construction Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Zhi-min

Liu

2020

Advances in Civil Engineering

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The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about significant influences to the world, including tunnel construction. Based on the analysis of 12 tunnel construction projects, this paper identifies the specific risk factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic, e.g., men, materials, machines, methods, social environment, and political epidemic prevention pressure. Among these risk factors, worker availability, site accessibility, shortage of construction materials, and inadequate epidemic prevention materials caused by the lockdown policy are the most fundamental challenges encountered by the projects. Social panic and epidemic prevention policy requirements are key issues needed to be addressed before the resumption of construction work. The special circumstances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic called for flexible project management and coordination skills to raise suitable and effective response strategies, while local governments make substantial contributions in solving the difficulties. Although these measures have resulted in higher project costs, their effectiveness in catching up with project schedules is worthy of recognition. The findings of this study enrich the risk categories of tunnel construction and the risk response strategies from the perspective of a global pandemic. It implies that future construction schemes including design, budget, supply chain, and project management should consider the possible influence of an epidemic.

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Section: E Impacts Of Covid-19 On Tunnel Construction Projectsmentioning

confidence: 71%

Risk Identification and Responses of Tunnel Construction Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Zhi-min

Liu

2020

Advances in Civil Engineering

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“…In the past literature, many studies have been found that have recommended an integrated simulation approach into project risk assessment, as this approach accounts explicitly for the effects of uncertainty in the project (Fang and Marle, 2012; Peleskei et al , 2015; Satumtira and Dueñas-Osorio, 2010). In a recent study, Pehlivan and Öztemir (2018) developed a simulation model to measure the impact of schedule delays on cost overrun. This model applies a risk integration approach in generating random scenarios and computes the cost impact of a delayed milestone in the expected budget.…”

Section: Applications Of Ai Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The complex and dynamic nature of construction projects have been encountered by a series of cost overrun issues over the years. This cost failure is because of the presence of complexity and uncertainty in a project system (Pehlivan and € Oztemir, 2018). Where there is uncertainty about ground conditions, accurate project costing cannot be achieved.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of artificial intelligence based risk assessment methods for capturing complexity-risk interdependencies

Afzal

Shao

Nazir

et al. 2019

IJMPB

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Purpose In the past decades, artificial intelligence (AI)-based hybrid methods have been increasingly applied in construction risk management practices. The purpose of this paper is to review and compile the current AI methods used for cost-risk assessment in the construction management domain in order to capture complexity and risk interdependencies under high uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach This paper makes a content analysis, based on a comprehensive literature review of articles published in high-quality journals from the years 2008 to 2018. Fuzzy hybrid methods, such as fuzzy-analytical network processing, fuzzy-artificial neural network and fuzzy-simulation, have been widely used and dominated in the literature due to their ability to measure the complexity and uncertainty of the system. Findings The findings of this review article suggest that due to the limitation of subjective risk data and complex computation, the applications of these AI methods are limited in order to address cost overrun issues under high uncertainty. It is suggested that a hybrid approach of fuzzy logic and extended form of Bayesian belief network (BBN) can be applied in cost-risk assessment to better capture complexity-risk interdependencies under uncertainty. Research limitations/implications This study only focuses on the subjective risk assessment methods applied in construction management to overcome cost overrun problem. Therefore, future research can be extended to interpret the input data required to deal with uncertainties, rather than relying solely on subjective judgments in risk assessment analysis. Practical implications These results may assist in the management of cost overrun while addressing complexity and uncertainty to avoid chaos in a project. In addition, project managers, experts and practitioners should address the interrelationship between key complexity and risk factors in order to plan risk impact on project cost. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy logic and BBN can better support the management implications in recent construction risk management practice. Originality/value This study addresses the applications of AI-based methods in complex construction projects. A proposed hybrid approach could better address the complexity-risk interdependencies which increase cost uncertainty in project.

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“…Transnational railway construction projects are not peaceful for government and engineering managers because they face various risks such as economic, environmental, technology, integrated and social risks (Dong et al , 2018; Pehlivan and Öztemir, 2018). They are even riskier than domestic construction projects because of different institutional environments, cultures, political, legal and socioeconomic conditions in the host countries (Gunhan and Arditi, 2005; Al-Sabah et al , 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing the social risks of transnational railway construction: a discussion on the formation mechanism of host country people's coping behaviors

Zhong

Fan

2020

ECAM

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the formation mechanism of the host country people's coping behavior regarding the construction of transnational railways to help engineering managers and decision makers improve their risk management and lead to sustainable transnational railway construction projects.Design/methodology/approachThis paper adopted the grounded theory methodology to analyze the news stories reported by “Belt and Road Portal” and “The New York Times” about eight transnational railways. They were China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan (Central Asia), Mecca-to-Medina (West Asia), Hungarian–Serbia (Europe), China–Nepal (South Asia), Bi-Oceanic (South America), Mombasa–Nairobi (Africa), China–Laos (Southeast Asia) and Panama railways (North America). The keywords for news search were the names of each railway. After eliminating the problem sentences with semantic repetition and ambiguity, 2,631 effective sentences were formed to screen the information and code. The process included open, axial and selective coding.FindingsIt was concluded that the core structure of the formation mechanism was “situation,” “influence factor,” “cognition” and “coping behavior.” The country-of-origin image has served as an adjustment function in the analysis for the host country people. Governance strategies were suggested focusing on risk prevention, risk mitigation and risk response according to social risk management.Research limitations/implicationsThe rise of transnational railway construction is encouraged by the process of globalization. But during the long construction period, the host country people's coping behavior would develop into social conflicts and mass incidents, becoming a significant obstacle to construction objectives. Thus, studying the formation mechanism of public coping behaviors can better take measures to prevent social risks.Originality/valueThe contributions of this research are three aspects: first, a formation mechanism of the host country people's coping behavior based on grounded theory is presented. Second, the country-of-origin image is found to be a factor that cannot be ignored in a transnational context. The formation mechanism of public coping behaviors is improved compared to risk management in the domestic situation. Finally, the host country people pay more attention to the motivations of country-of-origin's controlling interests and their own emotions compared with internal stakeholders.

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Integrated Risk of Progress-Based Costs and Schedule Delays in Construction Projects

Cited by 28 publications

References 9 publications

Risk Identification and Responses of Tunnel Construction Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Risk Identification and Responses of Tunnel Construction Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic

A review of artificial intelligence based risk assessment methods for capturing complexity-risk interdependencies

Reducing the social risks of transnational railway construction: a discussion on the formation mechanism of host country people's coping behaviors

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