Integrated Physics-Based Approach for the Reliability Prediction of Thermal Systems

Abstract

A broad reliability prediction method that can deal with complex thermo-fluidic systems is introduced. The procedure provides an engineering tool by integrating multiple computational packages to enable the simulation of a wide array of systems, especially those involving physics interactions such as fluid flow and solid medium. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Finite Element Method (FEM), Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and Fatigue analysis tools are integrated within this approach. CFD simulation is used to determine the heat convection terms used for the transient FEM analysis. Maximum thermal stress is provided by the FEM analysis whereby the fatigue life of the component is evaluated. Due to uncertainty of input parameters, the fatigue life will be in a Probability Density Function (PDF) form, which provides the relationship between the reliability and the service life of the system. The complete procedure is demonstrated using a cylindrical ring model, and then validated using experimental data gathered for power plant boiler pipes. The results show good agreement between the two methods.

High - Fidelity Reliability Prediction of a Tube Bundle

“…The tool was validated in Ref. [1]. It is based on multiphysical analyses and works by mapping CFD loads and coefficients onto the corresponding FEM model.…”