Integrated hydrological modeling for assessment of water demand and supply under socio-economic and IPCC climate change scenarios using WEAP in Central Indus Basin

Asghar, Areesha; Iqbal, Javed; Amin, Ali; Ribbe, Lars

doi:10.2166/aqua.2019.106

Cited by 42 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The potential impacts of climate change on water availability have been studied in many regions of the world (e.g., Hussen et al 2018;Yan et al 2018;Asghar et al 2019). For instance, Dahal et al (2020) investigated the climate change impact on water availability in the Karnali River Basin of Nepalese Himalaya and revealed an increase in future streamflow.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of climate change impact on water availability in the upper Dong Nai River Basin, Vietnam

Khôi

Nguyen

Sam

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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On a global scale, climate change is projected to have detrimental impacts on water availability. This situation will become more severe owing to accumulated impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. This study aims to investigate climate change impact on water availability in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models. Future rainfall scenarios were downscaled from five different general circulation models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) tool. Under the climate change impact, annual river discharge in the study region is generally projected to have upward trends in the future, except for the near-future period of 2030s under RCP4.5. In addition, dry-seasonal river discharge is expected to be increased in the future. Considering the baseline condition of water use, there was an annual water shortage of approximately 32.9 × 103 m3, which mostly occurred in the dry season from January to March. Climate change may reduce the water shortage in the study region ranging from 7.0 to 30.1% in the future. Under the combined impacts of climate change and increasing water demand, the water shortage will vary from −18.6 to 6.0% in the future. The results can provide valuable insights to implement appropriate future water resources planning and management in the study region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of climate change impact on water availability in the upper Dong Nai River Basin, Vietnam

Khôi

Nguyen

Sam

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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“…Similarly, previous studies have confirmed that the capability of the WEAP hydrologic model in reproducing catchment hydrology processes in a different part of the world (Table 5). Among these, Asghar et al (2019) reported the WEAP hydrologic model to attain the NSE and R 2 values of 0.85, 0.86, 0.89, and 0.87 for the monthly calibration and validation periods between the measured and simulated streamflow in the central Indus basin, respectively. From five gauging stations in the Western Algeria watersheds, ranging values of NSE= 0.23-0.88, and R 2 =0.74-1.0 were achieved between Fig.…”

Section: Model Performance Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the WEAP model in simulating subbasin hydrology in the Central Rift Valley basin, Ethiopia

Abdi

Ayenew

2021

Ecol Process

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Background The subbasin hydrologic behaviors have been altered by many natural and anthropologic factors such as climate change and land development activities. Model-based assessment can be used to simulate both natural hydrological processes, human-induced effects, and management strategies on water resources. For the Ketar subbasin, the WEAP (water evaluation and planning) hydrologic model was developed that aimed at (1) evaluating the application of the WEAP model in the Ketar subbasin, (2) evaluating the demonstration of the WEAP model using model efficiency evaluation criteria, and (3) simulating hydrological processes of the subbasin using the WEAP model. Methods WEAP-based soil moisture method (rainfall-runoff) hydrology routine is comprised of a lumped, one-dimensional, two-layer soil water accounting that uses empirical functions to designate evapotranspiration, surface runoff, interflow, and deep percolation for a sub-unit at root zone. A catchment is considered as the smallest hydrologic response unit. The catchment’s surface hydrological balance is typically estimated by discretizing the catchment into multiple land uses for which water balance is estimated at root zone. Results The monthly measured and simulated streamflow statistics showed a positive strong relationship with R2 of 0.82, NSE of 0.80, and IA of 0.95; and with R2 of 0.91, NSE of 0.91, and IA of 0.98 for calibration and validation periods respectively. Similarly, the mean monthly measured and simulated streamflow showed an agreement with R2 of 0.99, NSE of 0.97, and IA of 0.99, and R2 of 0.94, NSE of 0.93, and IA of 0.93 for the periods of calibration and validation respectively. Conclusion The model has demonstrated the capability to represent the hydrologic dynamics of the subbasin both at monthly and mean monthly periods. In general, the overall model performance evaluation statistics show a very good agreement between measured and simulated streamflow at the outlet of the subbasin.

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“…This decreased the per-capita water demand, along with the modeled percentage decrease in losses. Asghar et al 32 assessed the water demand and supply of the Central Indus Basin under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios using WEAP. Sieber 33 discussed how WEAP is globally used, especially where conventional tools fail to adequately manage the water resources due to their supply-oriented structure.…”

Section: Water Evaluation and Planning Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Water Evaluation and Planning-based framework for the long-term prediction of urban water demand and supply

et al. 2021

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Increased usage and non-efficient management of limited resources has created the risk of water resource scarcity. Due to climate change, urbanization, and lack of effective water resource management, countries like Pakistan are facing difficulties coping with the increasing water demand. Rapid urbanization and non-resilient infrastructures are the key barriers in sustainable urban water resource management. Therefore, there is an urgent need to address the challenges of urban water management through effective means. We propose a workflow for the modeling and simulation of sustainable urban water resource management and develop an integrated framework for the evaluation and planning of water resources in a typical urban setting. The proposed framework uses the Water Evaluation and Planning system to evaluate current and future water demand and the supply gap. Our simulation scenarios demonstrate that the demand–supply gap can effectively be dealt with by dynamic resource allocation, in the presence of assumptions, for example, those related to population and demand variation with the change of weather, and thus work as a tool for informed decisions for supply management. In the first scenario, 23% yearly water demand is reduced, while in the second scenario, no unmet demand is observed due to the 21% increase in supply delivered. Similarly, the overall demand is fulfilled through 23% decrease in water demand using water conservation. Demand-side management not only reduces the water usage in demand sites but also helps to save money, and preserve the environment. Our framework coupled with a visualization dashboard deployed in the water resource management department of a metropolitan area can assist in water planning and effective governance.

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Integrated hydrological modeling for assessment of water demand and supply under socio-economic and IPCC climate change scenarios using WEAP in Central Indus Basin

Cited by 42 publications

References 18 publications

Assessment of climate change impact on water availability in the upper Dong Nai River Basin, Vietnam

Assessment of climate change impact on water availability in the upper Dong Nai River Basin, Vietnam

Evaluation of the WEAP model in simulating subbasin hydrology in the Central Rift Valley basin, Ethiopia

A Water Evaluation and Planning-based framework for the long-term prediction of urban water demand and supply

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