Integrated Hydrodynamic Modeling and Frequency Analysis for Predicting 1% Storm Surge

Xu, Sudong; Huang, Wenrui

doi:10.2112/1551-5036-52.sp1.253

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The storm tide piles up along the coast and within the embayments, reaching to peak heights of 5.5 at the upstream limits of Perdido, Escambia, and East Bays. This wind-induced surge effect, which we note occurs throughout the upper bay, is similar to the response calculated hy Xu and Huang (2005). At Interstate 10 Bridge in Escamhia Bay, modeled peak stormtide heights are 3.5^ m, which fall within the range of high water marks reported by Douglass et al (2004) (3-4.5 m).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Unfortunately, the gauging station was damaged and did not record the peak surge and the setdown feature. In lieu of this, it is impossible to make reasonable comparisons for Pensacola; however, high water marks suggest a peak stormtide height of 3-4.5 m near the Interstate 10 Bridge in Escamhia Bay (Douglass et al, 2004), and previous numerical studies have calculated peak storm-tide heights of 3-3.5 m in Pensacola Bay (Xu and Huang, 2005). At Pensacola, simulated water elevations peak at 2.5 and 3.25 m when multipliers |i = 1.3 and n = 1.6 are used.…”

Section: Calibration (Hurricane Ivan)mentioning

confidence: 95%

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Hydrodynamics of the 2004 Florida Hurricanes

Hagen

Bacopoulos

Cox³

et al. 2011

Journal of Coastal Research

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I www.JCRonline.org Hagen, S.C; Bacopoulos, P.; Cox, A.T., and Cardone, V.We studied the hydrodynamic response caused by the four major hurricanes that struck Florida's coasts in 2004; Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. A large-scale, shallow-water-equation model was applied so as to simulate wind and tidally driven hydrodynamics from the deep ocean into the shelf and coastal waters of Florida. Hurricane Ivan served as the calibration case, where the adjusted parameter was the wind drag coefficient. We identified an "increased" wind drag coefficient to perform best and suggest it as a first approximation to the wave contribution to the hydrodynamics. The increased drag coefficient is offered to the consulting and/or forecasting communities, who are frequently without wavemodeling resources, as a pragmatic approach to approximate for waves. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jeanne serve as the validation cases in which the increased wind drag coefficient was applied. Analysis was performed by inspection of maximum water-surface elevations, which are interpreted in terms of shelf and bay dynamics for the west coast hurricane cases (Charley and Ivan) and in terms of channel hydraulics for the east coast hurricane cases (Frances and Jeanne). We conclude that the broad shelf off Florida's west coast allows the storm tide to accumulate along the open coast and that the emhayments further magnify the storm tide, and that the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway along Florida's east coast is effective in propagating storm tide, where we show compartmentalization of the storm tide in the Indian River lagoon as caused by the flow impediment of the causeway abutments.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Calibration (Hurricane Ivan)mentioning

confidence: 95%

Hydrodynamics of the 2004 Florida Hurricanes

Hagen

Bacopoulos

Cox³

et al. 2011

Journal of Coastal Research

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“…When a hurricane approaches the coast, emergency management agencies and residents rely on the forecasting information relating to hurricane tracks and storm surge for preparedness and evacuation planning. Traditionally, storm surge and evacuation planning are two different research areas, with the literature mainly focusing on an individual area such as evacuation traffic only [1,2] or storm surge only [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating storm surge modeling with traffic data analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of hurricane evacuation

Huang

Yin

Ghorbanzadeh

et al. 2021

Front. Struct. Civ. Eng.

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An integrated storm surge modeling and traffic analysis were conducted in this study to assess the effectiveness of hurricane evacuations through a case study of Hurricane Irma. The Category 5 hurricane in 2017 caused a record evacuation with an estimated 6.8 million people relocating statewide in Florida. The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model was applied to simulate storm tides during the hurricane event. Model validations indicated that simulated pressures, winds, and storm surge compared well with observations. Model simulated storm tides and winds were used to estimate the area affected by Hurricane Irma. Results showed that the storm surge and strong wind mainly affected coastal counties in south-west Florida. Only moderate storm tides (maximum about 2.5 m) and maximum wind speed about 115 mph were shown in both model simulations and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) post-hurricane assessment near the area of hurricane landfall. Storm surges did not rise to the 100-year flood elevation level. The maximum wind was much below the design wind speed of 150–170 mph (Category 5) as defined in Florida Building Code (FBC) for south Florida coastal areas. Compared with the total population of about 2.25 million in the six coastal counties affected by storm surge and Category 1–3 wind, the statewide evacuation of approximately 6.8 million people was found to be an over-evacuation due mainly to the uncertainty of hurricane path, which shifted from south-east to south-west Florida. The uncertainty of hurricane tracks made it difficult to predict the appropriate storm surge inundation zone for evacuation. Traffic data were used to analyze the evacuation traffic patterns. In south-east Florida, evacuation traffic started 4 days before the hurricane’s arrival. However, the hurricane path shifted and eventually landed in south-west Florida, which caused a high level of evacuation traffic in south-west Florida. Over-evacuation caused Evacuation Traffic Index (ETI) to increase to 200% above normal conditions in some sections of highways, which reduced the effectiveness of evacuation. Results from this study show that evacuation efficiency can be improved in the future by more accurate hurricane forecasting, better public awareness of real-time storm surge and wind as well as integrated storm surge and evacuation modeling for quick response to the uncertainty of hurricane forecasting.

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