Integrated ecosystem impacts of climate change and eutrophication on main Baltic fishery resources

Bossier, Sieme; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Almroth‐Rosell, Elin; Höglund, Anders; Bastardie, François; Neuenfeldt, Stefan; Wåhlström, Iréne; Christensen, Asbjørn

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109609

Cited by 21 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…Studies covering longer time periods (> 50 yr) are available only for separate ecosystem components, such as seals (Harding and Härkönen 1999), fish and fisheries (Eero et al 2007 b ), nutrient and oxygen conditions (Gustafsson et al 2012), and hydrography (Feistel et al 2008). Food‐web modeling frameworks exist for the Baltic Sea, covering different spatial extents from the very local and coastal (Tomczak et al 2009) to the whole Baltic Sea (Bossier et al 2021). Most food‐web models span the mid‐1970s to the present and some include future scenarios (Niiranen et al 2013).…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reference state, structure, regime shifts, and regulatory drivers in a coastal sea over the last century: The Central Baltic Sea case

Tomczak

Müller‐Karulis

Blenckner

et al. 2021

Limnology & Oceanography

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The occurrence of regime shifts in marine ecosystems has important implications for environmental legislation that requires setting reference levels and targets of quantitative restoration outcomes. The Baltic Sea ecosystem has undergone large changes in the 20th century related to anthropogenic pressures and climate variability, which have caused ecosystem reorganization. Here, we compiled historical information and identified relationships in our dataset using multivariate statistics and modeling across 31 biotic and abiotic variables from 1925 to 2005 in the Central Baltic Sea. We identified a series of ecosystem regime shifts in the 1930s, 1970s, and at the end of the 1980s/beginning of the 1990s. In the long term, the Central Baltic Sea showed a regime shift from a benthic to pelagic‐dominated state. Historically, benthic components played a significant role in trophic transfer, while in the more recent productive system pelagic–benthic coupling was weak and pelagic components dominated. Our analysis shows that for the entire time period, productivity, climate, and hydrography mainly affected the functioning of the food web, whereas fishing became important more recently. Eutrophication had far‐reaching direct and indirect impacts from a long‐term perspective and changed not only the trophic state of the system but also affected higher trophic levels. Our study also suggests a switch in regulatory drivers from salinity to oxygen. The “reference ecosystem” identified in our analysis may guide the establishment of an ecosystem state baseline and threshold values for ecosystem state indicators of the Central Baltic Sea.

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Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reference state, structure, regime shifts, and regulatory drivers in a coastal sea over the last century: The Central Baltic Sea case

Tomczak

Müller‐Karulis

Blenckner

et al. 2021

Limnology & Oceanography

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“…In the Baltic Sea, the salinity gradient is also an important factor that determines the occurrence of benthic invertebrates (e.g. Zettler et al, 2007Zettler et al, , 2017Bossier et al, 2018Bossier et al, , 2020Bossier et al, , 2021. Studies in the southern North Sea have revealed small-scale heterogeneity in bathymetry and sediment composition with alternating ridges and troughs at scales well within 1 min x 1 min grid cells (van Dijk et al, 2012;Koop et al, 2019;van der Reijden et al, 2019), and differences in marine benthic biomass and species composition have been observed between the valleys and crests of sand waves due to small-scale hydrodynamics (Ramey et al, 2009;Rijnsdorp et al, 2016).…”

Section: Environmental Drivers and Other Impacting Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of habitat-specific benthic fishing compared to those of short-term induced variability by environmental drivers in a turbulent Baltic Sea environment

et al. 2023

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“…While most research has focused on how species distribution and population demography vary with abiotic conditions [17][18][19] , recent work demonstrated that accounting for biotic interactions (such as predation or competition) improves the projection of species responses to change 15,16 . Yet, few studies have examined the combined effect of projected changes in land use and in climate on multi-species trophic interactions 20 . We addressed this research gap by combining a spatially-explicit simulation model of forest landscapes (FLM, 21 ) and an individual-based model (IBM, 22 ) of multiple species enmeshed in a boreal food web.…”

Section: Main Textmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global change impacts a threatened species through alteration of predator-prey dynamics

Labadie

Hardy

Boulanger

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Although global change can reshape ecosystems by triggering cascading effects on food webs, indirect interactions remain largely overlooked. Climate- and land use-induced changes on landscape cause shifts in vegetation composition, which affect entire food webs. We used simulations of forest dynamics and movements of interacting species, parameterized by empirical observations, to predict the outcomes of global change on a large-mammal food-web in boreal forest. We demonstrate that climate- and land use-induced changes of forest landscapes exacerbate asymmetrical apparent competition between moose and threatened caribou populations, through wolf predation. While increased prey mortalities came from both behavioural and numerical responses, indirect effects from numerical responses had an overwhelming effect. The increase in caribou mortalities was exacerbated by the cumulating effects of land-use over the short term and climate change impacts over the long-term, with higher impact of land-use. Indirect trophic interactions will be key to understanding community dynamics under global change.

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Integrated ecosystem impacts of climate change and eutrophication on main Baltic fishery resources

Cited by 21 publications

References 85 publications

Reference state, structure, regime shifts, and regulatory drivers in a coastal sea over the last century: The Central Baltic Sea case

Reference state, structure, regime shifts, and regulatory drivers in a coastal sea over the last century: The Central Baltic Sea case

Impacts of habitat-specific benthic fishing compared to those of short-term induced variability by environmental drivers in a turbulent Baltic Sea environment

Global change impacts a threatened species through alteration of predator-prey dynamics

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