Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

Abstract

Context In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture. Objectives To understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) climate/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley of California and surrounding foothills consistent with three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario narratives.Methods We quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic carbon (SOC), and water supply (recharge and runoff). For six case study watersheds we quantified the interactions of future development and changing climate on recharge, runoff and streamflow, and precipitation thresholds where dominant watershed hydrological processes shift through analysis of covariance. Results The scenarios show that across the region, habitat loss is expected to occur predominantly in grasslands, primarily due to future development (up to a 37 % decline by 2100), however habitat loss in priority conservation errors will likely be due to cropland and hay/pasture expansion (up to 40 % by 2100). Grasslands in the region contain approximately 100 teragrams SOC in the top 20 cm, and up to 39 % of this SOC is subject to conversion by 2100. In dryer periods recharge processes typically dominate runoff. Future development lowers the precipitation value at 123Landscape Ecol (2015) 30:729-750 DOI 10.1007 which recharge processes dominate runoff, and combined with periods of drought, reduces the opportunity for recharge, especially on deep soils. Conclusion Results support the need for climatesmart land use planning that takes recharge areas into account, which will provide opportunities for water storage in dry years. Given projections for agriculture, more modeling is needed on feedbacks between agricultural expansion on rangelands and water supply.

Perpetual private land conservation: the case for outdoor recreation and functional leisure

“…In addition, low-density residential development (Suarez-Rubio et al 2011) and the conversion of wetlands to farmland (Van Asselen et al 2013) and rangeland to tillable acreage (Byrd et al 2015) are becoming increasingly important issues. These land cover changes will diminish the vital ecosystem services provided by intact natural areas (Lee 2005).…”

Change in Soil Organic Carbon Stocks under 12 Climate Change Projections over New South Wales, Australia

“…Lal (2004) and Gottschalk et al (2012) reported higher latitude regions undergoing overall losses and tropical regions undergoing overall gains. At the country or regional level, SOC change under climate change has been spatially simulated in a number of recent studies, ranging from 250 m to over 50 km resolution, including in North America Follett et al, 2012;Dib et al, 2014;Zhong and Xu, 2014;Byrd et al, 2015;Orem et al, 2015), in Asia (Hashimoto et al, 2012;Zhao et al, 2013Zhao et al, , 2015, and in Europe and the Mediterranean region (Smith et al, 2005(Smith et al, , 2006Álvaro-Fuentes and Paustian, 2011;Álvaro-Fuentes et al, 2012).…”

Population and Habitat Objectives for Avian Conservation in California’s Central Valley Grassland–Oak Savannah Ecosystems

“…Similar historical data on the extent of oak savannah ecosystems in the Central Valley are lacking, but the magnitude of loss is probably similar. Today, both grassland and oak savannah ecosystems are still at risk of conversion to land uses that may not provide the suite of ecosystem services they currently generate (Cameron et al 2014;Byrd et al 2015). Furthermore, rapid climate change threatens to degrade a number of ecosystem services, including forage production and carbon sequestration (Kueppers et al 2005;Shaw et al 2011;Byrd et al 2015).…”

“…Today, both grassland and oak savannah ecosystems are still at risk of conversion to land uses that may not provide the suite of ecosystem services they currently generate (Cameron et al 2014;Byrd et al 2015). Furthermore, rapid climate change threatens to degrade a number of ecosystem services, including forage production and carbon sequestration (Kueppers et al 2005;Shaw et al 2011;Byrd et al 2015). Given these threats, and the multiple benefits of conserving these ecosystems, there is a strong and growing interest in protecting, restoring, and managing grasslands and oak savannahs in California.…”