Integrated assessment of a phase-out of coal-fired power plants in Germany

Heinrichs, Heidi; Schumann, Diana; Vögele, Stefan; Biß, Klaus; Shamon, Hawal; Markewitz, Peter; Többen, Johannes; Gillessen, Bastian; Gotzens, Fabian; Ernst, Anna

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2017.03.017

Cited by 50 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…We utilize the energy system model IKARUS [29,48,49] which depicts the whole German energy system ranging from primary energy supply across conversion and transport of energy carriers to final energy demand in a technology rich way (some thousand technologies), cf. Figure 3.…”

Section: Energy System Model Ikarusmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Counter-intuitive behaviour of energy system models under CO2 caps and prices

Weber

Heinrichs

Gillessen

et al. 2019

Energy

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The mitigation of climate change requires a fundamental transition of the energy system. Affordability, reliability and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions constitute central but often conflicting targets for this energy transition. Against this context, we reveal limitations and counter-intuitive results in the model-based optimization of energy systems, which are often applied for policy advice. When system costs are minimized in the presence of a CO 2 cap, efficiency gains free a part of the CO 2 cap, allowing cheap technologies to replace expensive low-emission technologies. Even more striking results are observed in a setup where emissions are minimized in the presence of a budget constraint. Increasing CO 2 prices can oust clean, but expensive technologies out of the system, and eventually lead to higher emissions. These effects robustly occur in models of different scope and complexity. Hence, extreme care is necessary in the application of energy system optimization models to avoid misleading policy advice.

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Section: Energy System Model Ikarusmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A variety of approaches has been put forward to assess and optimize energy systems based on these targets. Modelling approaches range from purely technical through techno-economic to predominantly economic models and most recently socio-technical models [27][28][29]. They differ in scales, system boundaries and level of detail.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Counter-intuitive behaviour of energy system models under CO2 caps and prices

Weber

Heinrichs

Gillessen

et al. 2019

Energy

Self Cite

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“…For example, social acceptance has a relevant impact on grid and wind power expansion [50,51]. Heinrichs et al [52] combine a survey, a macro-economic input-output model, and an energy system model to assess phase-outs of coal-fired power plants in Germany. They conclude that integrated assessment of energy systems provides more robust results.…”

Section: Interdisciplinary Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A qualitative evaluation approach for energy system modelling frameworks

et al. 2018

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Background: The research field of energy system analysis is faced with the challenge of increasingly complex systems and their sustainable transition. The challenges are not only on a technical level but also connected to societal aspects. Energy system modelling plays a decisive role in this field, and model properties define how useful it is in regard to the existing challenges. For energy system models, evaluation methods exist, but we argue that many decisions upon properties are rather made on the model generator or framework level. Thus, this paper presents a qualitative approach to evaluate frameworks in a transparent and structured way regarding their suitability to tackle energy system modelling challenges. Methods: Current main challenges and framework properties that potentially contribute to tackle these challenges are derived from a literature review. The resulting contribution matrix and the described application procedure is then applied exemplarily in a case study in which the properties of the Open Energy Modelling Framework are checked for suitability to each challenge. Results: We identified complexity (1), scientific standards (2), utilisation (3), interdisciplinary modelling (4), and uncertainty (5) as the main challenges. We suggest three major property categories of frameworks with regard to their capability to tackle the challenges: open-source philosophy (1), collaborative modelling (2), and structural properties (3). General findings of the detailed mapping of challenges and properties are that an open-source approach is a precondition for complying with scientific standards and that approaches to tackle the challenges complexity and uncertainty counteract each other. More research in the field of complexity reduction within energy system models is needed. Furthermore, while framework properties can support to address problems of result communication and interdisciplinary modelling, an important part can only be addressed by communication and organisational structures, thus, on a behavioural and social level. Conclusions: We conclude that the relevance of energy system analysis tools needs to be reviewed critically. Their suitability for tackling the identified challenges deserves to be emphasised. The approach presented here is one contribution to improve current evaluation methods by adding this aspect.

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“…The need for an abrupt transition away from fossil fuels in light of the climate crisis and the uprising of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions worldwide has arguably been championed in light of the EU's need to ensure climate neutrality in 2050 [1]. To this end, the phase-out of coal-fired power plants as a conventional energy source is one of the utmost compelling issues arising at different latitudes as the business [2], socio-economic [3], environmental [4], and net-energy [5] cases for such an energy source are rapidly losing ground.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Legal Pathways to Coal Phase-Out in Italy in 2025

et al. 2020

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This contribution aims to provide an in-depth outlook of the phase-out of coal-fired energy generation in Italy. In particular, this article analyzes the state-of-the-art with regard to both the current role of coal generation and the performance of the main legal and regulatory tools as implemented in Italy thus far to ensure the closure of all coal power plants by 2025 as announced in the Italian National Climate and Energy Plan. Based on existing data and scenarios on both electricity production and demand trends, this article unfolds the marginal role played by coal-fired generation in the Italian energy mix. In addition, this paper aims to highlight the outstanding technical uncertainties and regulatory hurdles in the way towards de-carbonization of energy generation in Italy. This paper argues that several remarkable improvements are needed in order to avoid over-generation (especially through natural gas), to upscale the penetration of renewable energy sources, and develop the necessary infrastructures to adequately deliver on the full phasing-out of coal within the expected timeframes.

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Integrated assessment of a phase-out of coal-fired power plants in Germany

Cited by 50 publications

References 20 publications

Counter-intuitive behaviour of energy system models under CO2 caps and prices

Counter-intuitive behaviour of energy system models under CO2 caps and prices

A qualitative evaluation approach for energy system modelling frameworks

Legal Pathways to Coal Phase-Out in Italy in 2025

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