Integrated adaptive design for wildlife movement under climate change

Lister, Nina-Marie; Brocki, Marta; Ament, Rob

doi:10.1890/150080

Cited by 45 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…, Lister et al. ). This low‐regrets approach aims to connect suitable habitat along relevant environmental gradients, particularly through ecological renovation or protection, as implemented, for example, in reserves in the Cape Floristic Region (Sgro et al.…”

Section: Quadrant C: Low‐regrets Options To Enhance Capacity To Withsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Shifting the conservation paradigm: a synthesis of options for renovating nature under climate change

Prober

Doerr

Broadhurst

et al. 2019

Ecological Monographs

147

155

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Changes in Earth's climate are accelerating, prompting increasing calls to ensure that investments in ecological restoration and nature conservation accommodate such changes. To acknowledge this need, we propose the term “ecological renovation” to describe ecological management and nature conservation actions that actively allow for environmental change. To evaluate and progress the development of ecological renovation and related intervention options in a climate change context, we reviewed the literature and established a typology of options that have been proposed. We explored how these options address emerging principles underpinning climate‐adapted conservation goals and whether the balance of approaches reflected in our typology is likely to be sufficient given expected rapid rates of climate change. Our typology recognizes a matrix of 23 intervention option types arranged on the basis of underpinning ecological mechanisms (“ameliorate changing conditions” or “build adaptive capacity”) on one axis, and the nature of the tools used to manipulate them (“low regrets” or “climate targeted”) on the other. Despite a burgeoning literature since 2008, we found that the majority of effort has consistently focused on low‐regrets adaptation approaches that aim to build adaptive capacity. This is in many ways desirable, but a paradigm shift enabling greater attention to climate‐targeted approaches is likely to be needed as climate change accelerates. When assessed against five emerging principles for setting nature conservation goals in a changing climate, only one option type could deliver to all five, and we identified a conflict between climate‐targeted options and “wildness” values that calls for deeper evaluation. Importantly, much of the inference in the 473 reviewed studies was drawn from ecological reasoning and modeling, with only 16% offering new empirical evidence. We also noted significant biases toward North America and Europe, forest ecosystems, trees, and vertebrates. To address these limitations and help shift the paradigm toward humans as “renovators” rather than “restorers” of a prior world, we propose that ecological researchers contribute by (1) informing societal discourse toward adapting nature conservation goals to climate change, (2) adjusting and upscaling conservation planning to accommodate this suite of climate‐adapted goals, and (3) reconceptualizing experimental approaches to increase empirical evidence and expedite innovation of tools to address change.

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Section: Quadrant C: Low‐regrets Options To Enhance Capacity To Withsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Shifting the conservation paradigm: a synthesis of options for renovating nature under climate change

Prober

Doerr

Broadhurst

et al. 2019

Ecological Monographs

147

155

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Outcomes of climate change challenge the conservation and persistence of many species (Gouveia et al, ), especially those considered to be endemic and threatened with higher extinction risks (Lambers, ). Climate change can lead to changes in characteristics of movement and species distribution (Lister, Brocki, & Ament, ), including range shifts, habitat contractions and expansions and fragmentation (Parmesan, ; Struebig et al, ). Projections of spatial variations in species distributions and the identification of regions where species could persist and later expand during climate change are essential for targeted conservation efforts (Lambers, ; Struebig et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province, China

Zhang

Clauzel

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey ( Rhinopithecus roxellana ), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species’ habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least‐cost model for the current period (1960–1990) and the 2050s (2041–2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least‐cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km 2 of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km 2 and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km 2 and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high‐priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.

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“…Despite the acknowledged importance of these dynamics associated with connectivity for addressing climate change (e.g., Lister et al. ; Robillard et al. ), we know of no examples either in the literature or implemented in conservation efforts that specifically include future climate projections and the accessibility of suitable climatic conditions in predicting landscape connectivity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change

Littlefield

McRae

Michalak

et al. 2017

Conservation Biology

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Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate.

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Integrated adaptive design for wildlife movement under climate change

Abstract: Adaptive design for wildlife crossings N-M Lister et al. 494www.frontiersinecology.org

Cited by 45 publications

References 46 publications

Shifting the conservation paradigm: a synthesis of options for renovating nature under climate change

Shifting the conservation paradigm: a synthesis of options for renovating nature under climate change

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province, China

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change

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