Integral Assessment of the Bioclimatic Characteristics of the Ulyanovsk Region in the Territorial Context

Abstract

The article discusses the main approaches to increasing the volume of grain production and maximizing the use of bioclimatic potential in changing climatic conditions, and studying comprehensive assessments of the factors of potential and actually possible production by crops. The initial information for the research was the data of surface meteorological observations from 1990 to 2019 at six meteorological stations located on the territory of the Ulyanovsk region. In assessing long-term changes in agrometeorological parameters, Fourier expansion was used, and the parameters of the best sinusoidal approximation of the maximum and minimum points were determined. It was revealed that over the past three decades, there has been a steady increase in the average annual temperature (5.2 ° C), especially in the cold season. Moisture supply is more chaotic, the change is heterogeneous, varying from 280 mm (2012) to 664 mm (2017) and the average value for 1990-2019 is 498 mm. Barley (8.3 t/ha) has the greatest potential among grain crops in terms of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), rye has the smallest (6.4 t/ha). In terms of the amount of thermal resources and moisture, rye reaches the maximum crop production, winter wheat is sensitive to moisture, and barley to temperature conditions. Moisture resources are the limiting factor in agricultural production, and therefore the level of use of bioclimatic potential varies from 19 to 29% in PAR, from 25 to 44% in moisture resources, and from 32.8 to 66% in thermal regime. Therefore, among the priority problems associated with adaptation work is analytical and practical activities in the field of assessment and analysis of the transformation of agriculture, ensuring its sustainability for adaptation to modern changes in climatic conditions. To adapt to modern changes in climatic conditions, it is necessary to improve the structure of sown areas, the use of effective fertilizers, technical equipment, the use of elite seeds, modern technologies. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the objective function of the bioclimatic potential of development against the background of global warming, the consideration of the system of potentials for the agricultural development of the region. The work is of practical importance, since the assessments being developed are a necessary tool in ensuring the target orientation of a unified regional policy in relation to the formation and use of development potential, including contributing to the formation of an idea of the real and potential opportunities of the region.