Insurgency in Central Asia: A case study of Tajikistan

Kevlihan, Robert

doi:10.1080/09592318.2016.1151656

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…This consideration was particularly salient in the case of the largest disputed region, in the Pamir Mountains. After its independence, Tajikistan fell into a civil war pitting those allied with the old Soviet regime against a variety of opposition groups, some based in the Pamirs (Kevlihan, 2016). The Gorno-Badakshan region, which includes the disputed area, initially declared independence and emerged from the conflict as an autonomous region.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Aims, claims, and the bargaining model of war

Schultz¹,

Goemans

2019

Int. Theory

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Although in principle states can bargain over the entire extent of their combined territory, we observe historically that states bargain within far more limited confines defined by well-bounded claims. We argue that this observation stems from the fact that states generally have limited territorial aims due either to limited benefits of obtaining additional territory and/or the costs of absorbing and controlling new territories and their inhabitants. Using a formal model, we show that introducing states with limited aims over territory has strategic implications for bargaining that have not been appreciated in canonical models that do not consider heterogeneity in state preferences. Whereas traditional models generally imply that small demands undermine the credibility of a challenger's threat, the existence of states with limited territorial aims makes limited demands credible, effective, and stable in the face of shocks to relative power. We then employ geospatial data on the geographic extent of territorial disputes in the period 1947–2000 to establish two results: the size of claims is weakly related to the relative power of disputants and unaffected by dramatic changes in power, and smaller claims are associated with a higher probability that the challenger will receive any concession.

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confidence: 99%

Aims, claims, and the bargaining model of war

Schultz¹,

Goemans

2019

Int. Theory

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“…Presumably, Tajikistan will conduct a smooth dynastic transition in the coming years, but it is important to note that Rahmon has always encountered stiff resistance to his rule in the country’s mountainous east, 7 and the drug trafficking industry (which originates in Afghanistan and traverses through Tajikistan) could be used as a source of rent by violent extremist groups which seek to mount a challenge to Rahmon’s rule. In the past, Afghanistan served as a type of safe haven for members of the United Tajik Opposition (which fought against Rahmon during Tajikistan’s civil war), but the amount of aid that such groups received from Afghan warlords was limited (Gleason, 2001; Kevlihan, 2016; Sullivan, 2020, p. 369). Nowadays, the relationship between Dushanbe and the Afghan Taliban is antagonistic, for reports have surfaced which indicate that the group has formed a ‘battalion of suicide bombers’ and ‘provided weapons to Tajik insurgents operating in Badakhshan along the Tajik-Afghan border’ (Kaura, 2021).…”

Section: Friend or Foe?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Afghanistan in Anarchy: America’s Withdrawal, Taliban Rule and Regional Implications for Central Asia

Sullivan

2022

Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs

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This article analyses the geopolitical repercussions of America’s military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban’s seizure of power in 2021. Since the Afghan Taliban continue to disregard the principal terms of the 2020 Doha Agreement brokered by the United States, Afghanistan is descending into chaos. The Afghan Taliban is unable to provide ordinary Afghans with basic living necessities, lacks international recognition and must contend against other violent extremist organizations operating within the country. Thus far, the Central Asian republics (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan) have exhibited varying responses to the Afghan Taliban’s takeover. While the ‘Stans’ are all anxious about the potential spread of radical Islam and a looming humanitarian crisis, the greater threat to Ashgabat, Tashkent and Dushanbe, as well as Bishkek and Nur-Sultan, lies with the United States pivoting away from Central Asia and the Russian Federation acquiring greater leverage over regional security issues.

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“…Political actors and journalists often represented residents of GBAO (commonly referred to as Pamiri) as one of the aggrieved groups during the civil war (Driscoll 2015;Kevlihan 2016), when an estimated 200,000 Pamiri fled Dushanbe for GBAO (Kevlihan 2016). Early in the war, the leader of Ismaili Islam, the Aga Khan, began providing direct humanitarian aid to GBAO residents, largely through food rations (Bliss 2006).…”

Section: Reconstruction In the Gorno-badakhshan Autonomous Oblast'mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Legacy of Conflict: Reconstruction and Migration in the Aftermath of Civil War in Tajikistan

O’Brien

2021

International Migration Review

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How do civil war and subsequent reconstruction efforts affect international migration? Although a wealth of evidence points to violent conflict’s effects on contemporaneous migration and although a rich body of literature examines development’s effects on migration, we know less about the intersection of conflict, development, and migration. This article examines the intersection of these factors nearly a decade after the 1992–1997 civil war in Tajikistan, combining data from the 2007 Tajikistan Living Standards Survey, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and original interviews. In a series of logistic regression models, I show that conflict fatalities do not have a direct effect on subsequent migration, while the number of years a district has had a development resource center directly increases the likelihood of migrating. However, the interaction between development and conflict is negative and significant. These findings suggest that conflict’s legacy does not directly impact the likelihood of respondents migrating but instead changes the nature of the relationship between development and migration. This finding illuminates conflict’s potential long-term consequences for migration and extends the migration-development nexus by addressing the role of conflict in the relationship between development and migration. In particular, it suggests that migration research in conflict-affected countries should incorporate measures of both conflict and development, even after a given conflict has ended.

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Insurgency in Central Asia: A case study of Tajikistan

Cited by 10 publications

References 33 publications

Aims, claims, and the bargaining model of war

Aims, claims, and the bargaining model of war

Afghanistan in Anarchy: America’s Withdrawal, Taliban Rule and Regional Implications for Central Asia

The Legacy of Conflict: Reconstruction and Migration in the Aftermath of Civil War in Tajikistan

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