Institutional and Policy Responses to Uncertainty in Environmental Policy: A Comparison of Dutch and U.S. Styles

Abstract

Uncertainties regarding problem definition and policy response are an endemic part of environmental decisionmaking. Some standard responses to uncertainty in decisionmaking are analyzed and then used to suggest the importance of learningoriented policy processes in open, flexible, and adaptive institutional environments. The institutional and policy responses to both types of uncertainties are explored in two different institutional settings: the consensus-oriented setting of the Netherlands and the more adversarial and pluralistic context of the United States. The examination displays tensions accompanying learning-oriented environmental policymaking and the complex impact of institutional environments.Conclusions sketch implications for how to accommodate learning-oriented environmental policy processes.

Governing Uncertainties in Sustainable Energy Transitions—Insights from Local Heat Supply in Switzerland

“…Strategies for dealing with uncertainty have been widely examined by different strands of governance-oriented literature with a policy and implementation (Arentsen et al, 2000;Bressers, 1997;Jänicke & Jörgens, 1999;Morgan, Henrion, & Small, 1990), organizational (Milliken, 1987), or planning focus (Christensen, 1985). Within these diverse literatures, three ideal typical approaches for dealing with uncertainty can be identified.…”

“…While decision-making in the face of uncertainty is probably most prominently discussed in the field of psychology with a focus on individual behavior (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974), the topic is also a recurrent "classic" in various fields of research focusing on collective decisionmaking-ranging from organization and management studies (Courtney, Kirkland, & Viguerie, 1997;Weick & Sutcliffe, 2015) to policy research (Arentsen, Bressers, & O'Toole, 2000;Renn, 2008). More recently, the issue has gained prominence in the interdisciplinary field of environmental and sustainability studies, reflecting a core challenge of sustainability governance (Berkes, 2007;Grunwald, 2007;Polasky, Carpenter, Folke, & Keeler, 2011).…”

Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decision-making: The example of the EU water framework directive

“…In the literature there can be found very different definitions of factual and normative uncertainty (Arentsen et al 2000;Gottschalk-Mazouz 2003;Newig et al 2005). Within the scope of the 'concept of uncertainty' developed here we propose the following definitions:…”

Using a Triangulated Theoretical Framework and Mixed Methods: Frame, Institutional and Network Analyses

“…In the face of projections that climate change will increase the number of fire weather events and thus the potential for increased bushfire impacts, the reactive nature of this policy sector is likely to increase. The goal of developing appropriately open and learningorientated policy systems is likely to be especially challenging in settings in which political incentives are crafted to emphasises short-term perspectives (Arentsen, et al, 2000:609) -a major theme in public administration debates. Without concerted efforts to address an institutionalised need for demonstrable reactivity, based on ideas of quantifiable actions and the rational model of policy administration, the constraints on a capacity for reflexive learning already facing this sector may be exacerbated.…”