Insights on defeating coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak and predicting tourist arrival on the Chinese Hainan Leisure Island during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Background: Hainan province is a very popular leisure tourist arriving city in China. Coronavirus disease 2019 emerged in China and rapidly in early 2020, and due to its rapid worldwide spread, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a global emergency. During the COVID-19 pandemic in Hainan province, many businesses and economies were influenced in this unexpected event, especially in tourism.Methods: This study used 2 classical forecasting methods to predict the number of tourists on Hainan Leisure Island from September to December in the second half of 2020 and to summarize the COVID-19 fighting experience during the pandemic. In addition, the Hainan government implemented epidemic control measures to resume production and work, and promote new tourism measures to acquire superior COVID-19 protection.Results: Winter's method provides a statistical model for predicting the number of visitors to Hainan under normal conditions. The trend analysis method considers the impact of the black swan event, an irregular event, and only uses the data under the influence of the event to predict according to the trend. Conclusion:If the impact of the black swan event (COVID-19) continues, the prediction can be made using this method. In addition, the Hainan government has undertaken timely and effective measures against COVID-19 to promote leisure tourism development.Abbreviations: COVID-19 = coronavirus disease 2019, MAD = mean absolute deviation, MAPE = mean absolute percentage error, MSD = mean standard deviation.

Exploring Intra-Island Population Mobility and Economic Resilience: The Case of Hainan Island, China

“…However, due to the impact of the pandemic, the peak of 2020 has been significantly weakened. With the effective control of the pandemic, the population migration index in all four areas increased steadily[48], and was close to the historical level in the same period, indicating that the regions were recovering continuously.From the time trend, the population mobility of the Danzhou-Yangpu Port Economic Circle and the Central Ecological Conservation Area recovered more rapidly, while that of the Haikou Comprehensive Economic Circle and the Sanya Tourism Economic Circle recovered more slowly. With the resumption of work and production, the average weekly population immigration index of Haikou Comprehensive Economic Circle in 2019 maintained a stable level and showed weekly periodic fluctuations, and on Saturdays (23 February and 2, 9, 16, 23, and 30 March) the population migration index reached a peak.…”

“…With the resumption of work and production, the average weekly population immigration index of Haikou Comprehensive Economic Circle in 2019 maintained a stable level and showed weekly periodic fluctuations, and on Saturdays (23 February and 2, 9, 16, 23, and 30 March) the population migration index reached a peak. However, due to the impact of the pandemic, the peak of 2020 has been significantly weakened.With the effective control of the pandemic, the population migration index in all four areas increased steadily[48], and was close to the historical level in the same period, indicating that the regions were recovering continuously. From the time trend, the population mobility of the Danzhou-Yangpu Port Economic Circle and the Central Ecological Conservation Area recovered more rapidly, while that of the Haikou Comprehensive Economic Circle and the Sanya Tourism Economic Circle recovered more slowly.…”

The effect of information overload and perceived risk on tourists’ intention to travel in the post-COVID-19 pandemic

“…This implies that past January 24th, 2020, the inner movement of individuals was significantly contained, and Hainan nearly did not have any tourists for a section of the period in January. However, owing to efficient community supervision and health care, the pandemic in China was effectively controlled, and the people’s movement started to continue in an organized way ( Liu et al, 2021 ).…”