Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

Wang, Yuefeng; Xu, Youpeng; Tabari, Hossein; Wang, Jie; Wang, Qiang; Song, Song; Hu, Zunle

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104673

Cited by 183 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 57 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…In this article, the ITA method was applied on the monthly precipitation data between 1951 and 2012. Recently, extensive studies have used the ITA method to analyze the long-term recorded variables at the eastern Chine/Yangtze River Delta (annual and seasonal rainfall) [25], in Southern Italy (rainfall anomalies) [24], at the Pascagoula River, in Oxford City, and in Diyarbakir City [33] (monthly flow, rainfall, and daily temperature), and on the Qazin plain [28] (decadal river flow extremes). The ITA method failed to evaluate the monthly precipitation trends in the region of the Lake Issyk-Kul.…”

Section: The Mann-kendall Trend Test For Analyzing the Temporal Precimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Caloiero and Coscarelli [24] used theŞen's method and Mann-Kendall trend test to study temporal rainfall dynamics in a large part of southern Italy for possible trends in seasonal and annual precipitation values. Wang and Xu [25] indicated that the utilization of these classical approaches is limited by certain assumptions, including of the sequence independence of data series. Also, these referenced processes are purely statistical techniques that do not allow us to detect the "low", "medium", and "high" value trends during a calculation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The analysis of various characteristics and trends of precipitation is an essential task to improve the utilization of water resources. Lake Issyk-Kul basin is an upper alpine catchment, which is more susceptible to the effects of climate variability, and identifying rainfall variations has vital importance for water resource planning and management in the lake basin. The well-known approaches linear regression, Şen’s slope, Spearman’s rho, and Mann-Kendall trend tests are applied frequently to try to identify trend variations, especially in rainfall, in most literature around the world. Recently, a newly developed method of Şen-innovative trend analysis (ITA) provides some advantages of visual-graphical illustrations and the identification of trends, which is one of the main focuses in this article. This study obtained the monthly precipitation data (between 1951 and 2012) from three meteorological stations (Balykchy, Cholpon-Ata, and Kyzyl-Suu) surrounding the Lake Issyk-Kul, and investigated the trends of precipitation variability by applying the ITA method. For comparison purposes, the traditional Mann–Kendall trend test also used the same time series. The main results of this study include the following. (1) According to the Mann-Kendall trend test, the precipitation of all months at the Balykchy station showed a positive trend (except in January (Zc = −0.784) and July (Zc = 0.079)). At the Cholpon-Ata and Kyzyl-Suu stations, monthly precipitation (with the same month of multiple years averaged) indicated a decreasing trend in January, June, August, and November. At the monthly scale, significant increasing trends (Zc > Z0.10 = 1.645) were detected in February and October for three stations. (2) The ITA method indicated that the rising trends were seen in 16 out of 36 months at the three stations, while six months showed decreasing patterns for “high” monthly precipitation. According to the “low” monthly precipitations, 14 months had an increasing trend, and four months showed a decreasing trend. Through the application of the ITA method (January, March, and August at Balykchy; December at Cholpon-Ata; and July and December at Kyzyl-Suu), there were some significant increasing trends, but the Mann-Kendall test found no significant trends. The significant trend occupies 19.4% in the Mann-Kendall test and 36.1% in the ITA method, which indicates that the ITA method displays more positive significant trends than Mann–Kendall Zc. (3) Compared with the classical Mann-Kendall trend results, the ITA method has some advantages. This approach allows more detailed interpretations about trend detection, which has benefits for identifying hidden variation trends of precipitation and the graphical illustration of the trend variability of extreme events, such as “high” and “low” values of monthly precipitation. In contrast, these cannot be discovered by applying traditional methods.

show abstract

Section: The Mann-kendall Trend Test For Analyzing the Temporal Precimentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The test results using four methods indicates that ST method was very sensitive and superior to the LT, MK, and MMK test for the determination of the change in lake levels. This superior aspect of the ST method has been seen in many other studies in the literature [31][32][33][34]. In addition, all data ranges can be displayed graphically in the ST Cartesian coordinate system, so visual inspection and interpretation can also be made.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Trend Analyses of Meteorological Variables and Lake Levels for Two Shallow Lakes in Central Turkey

Yağbasan

Demir

Yazıcıgil

2020

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Trend analyses of meteorological variables play an important role in assessing the long-term changes in water levels for sustainable management of shallow lakes that are extremely vulnerable to climatic variations. Lake Mogan and Lake Eymir are shallow lakes offering aesthetic, recreational, and ecological resources. Trend analyses of monthly water levels and meteorological variables affecting lake levels were done by the Mann-Kendall (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), Sen Trend (ST), and Linear trend (LT) methods. Trend analyses of monthly lake levels for both lakes revealed an increasing trend with the Mann-Kendall, Linear, and Sen Trend tests. The Modified Mann-Kendall test results were statistically significant with an increasing trend for Eymir lake levels, but they were insignificant for Mogan lake due to the presence of autocorrelation. While trend analyses of meteorological variables by Sen Test were significant at all tested variables and confidence levels, Mann-Kendall, Modified Mann-Kendall, and Linear trend provided significant trends for only humidity and wind speed. The trend analyses of Sen Test gave increasing trends for temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation; and decreasing trends for humidity, sunshine duration, and pan evaporation. These results show that increasing precipitation and decreasing pan evaporation resulted in increasing lake levels. The results further demonstrated an inverse relationship between the trends of air temperature and pan evaporation, pointing to an apparent “Evaporation Paradox”, also observed in other locations. However, the increased cloud cover happens to offset the effects of increased temperature and decreased humidity on pan evaporation. Thus, all relevant factors affecting pan evaporation should be considered to explain seemingly paradoxical observations.

show abstract

“…In these areas, the increasing change-point years of PEs often occurred around 1990 in the southeast of Hu Huanyong Line, while often occurred in the early 1980s in Qing-Tibet Platen. The results indicated that the area in the southeast of Hu Huanyong Line was under the threats of both PEs and DEs, this may produce severe impacts on agriculture, environment, water resources management, human society, etc.Atmosphere 2020, 11, 11 2 of 16 climate extremes under climate changes increased sharply all over the world [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14], especially in the researches concentrated on the precipitation extremes (PEs) [8-10,12,14-23] and drought extremes (DEs) [9,13,[24][25][26][27], most of which were focused on the definition, related indices, change trends, attribution, and their impacts. Frich et al (2002) [7] found that under the background of global warming, the range of increasing precipitation in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere was widened, and extreme precipitation events may be more frequent.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among all the extreme climate events, precipitation and drought extremes may be the first two that have severe and lasting disastrous impacts on the agriculture, ecological environment, and human society. In the past two decades, there have been more and more studies [14,24,27,[30][31][32][33][34][35][43][44][45][46][47][48] in this field, in China since 1999, the researcher Zhai et al [6] published their article about the changes of climate extremes in China. Regionally in precipitation extremes, in Southeast China, an increasing frequency trend was detected [30,32,34,36,45,46], especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River [14,30,45] and in the coastal areas [34].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Change-Point Analysis of Precipitation and Drought Extremes in China over the Past 50 Years

Liu

Guo

et al. 2019

Atmosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Increases in climate extremes and their impacts have attracted global attention recently. In this study, the change-point years of precipitation extremes (PEs) and drought extremes (DEs) were investigated by Moving t-Test at 500 stations across the six regions in China. The detailed temporal change processes of them were demonstrated by the cumulative deviation method based on the data from nine typical stations. The results showed that: 1) DEs were more significantly and widely increased than PEs, the stations with increasing trends of PEs and DEs accounted for greater than 52.6% and 61.6% of the total, respectively; 2) increasing trends of DEs were mainly distributed in the east of Hu Huanyong Line. In this area, the increasing change-point years of DEs often occurred in the early 1980s in the south of the Yangzi River, while occurred in the 1990s in the north of the Yangzi River; 3) increasing trends of PEs were mainly distributed in Qing-Tibet Platen, Northwest China, and the southeastern area of Hu Huanyong Line. In these areas, the increasing change-point years of PEs often occurred around 1990 in the southeast of Hu Huanyong Line, while often occurred in the early 1980s in Qing-Tibet Platen. The results indicated that the area in the southeast of Hu Huanyong Line was under the threats of both PEs and DEs, this may produce severe impacts on agriculture, environment, water resources management, human society, etc.

show abstract

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

Cited by 183 publications

References 57 publications

Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

Innovative Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

Trend Analyses of Meteorological Variables and Lake Levels for Two Shallow Lakes in Central Turkey

Change-Point Analysis of Precipitation and Drought Extremes in China over the Past 50 Years

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About