Innovation forecasting

Watts, R.J.; Porter, A.L.

doi:10.1109/picmet.1997.653329

Cited by 37 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Bibliometric data can be used to assess and forecast technological progress (Martin 1995;Watts and Porter 1997;Daim et al 2006). Among the many purposes it serves, bibliometric data can be used for trend analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Discovering and assessing fields of expertise in nanomedicine: a patent co-citation network perspective

2012

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Document publié chez l'éditeur commercial ABSTRACTDiscovering and assessing fields of expertise in emerging technologies from patent data is not straightforward. First, patent classification in an emerging technology being far from complete, the definitions of the various applications of its inventions are embedded within communities of practice. Because patents must contain full record of prior art, co-citation networks can, in theory, be used to identify and delineate the inventive effort of these communities of practice. However, the use patent citations for the purpose of measuring technological relatedness is not obvious because they can be added by examiners. Second, the assessment of the development stage of emerging industries has been mostly done through simple patent counts. Because patents are not all valuable, a better way of evaluating an industry's stage of development would be to use multiple patent quality metrics as well as economic activity agglomeration indicators. The purpose of this article is to validate the use of 1) patent citations as indicators of technological relatedness, and 2) multiple indicators for assessing an industry's development stage. Greedy modularity optimization of the 'Canadian-made' nanotechnology patent co-citation network shows that patent citations can effectively be used as indicators of technological relatedness. Furthermore, the use of multiple patent quality and economic agglomeration indicators offers better assessment and forecasting potential than simple patent counts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Discovering and assessing fields of expertise in nanomedicine: a patent co-citation network perspective

2012

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“…There are different technology life-cycles with different stages for various aspects (e.g., Ford and Ryan, 1981;Abernathy and Utterback, 1978;Anderson and Tushman, 1990;Little, 1981;Erickson et al, 1990;Achilladelis, 1993;Achilladelis et al, 1990;Watts and Porter, 1997;Khalil, 2000;Linden and Fenn, 2003;Rogers, 2010;Moore and Adamson, 2011;Routley et al, 2013). In this study seven different technology life-cycles form the basis of the product development structure (Figure 2).…”

Section: Tlc Orientationmentioning

confidence: 97%

Product development activities over technology life-cycles in different generations

Shahmarichatghieh

Härkönen

Haapasalo

et al. 2016

IJPLM

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This study aims to capture changes and priorities in product development activities over technology life-cycles. The product development activities are observed through the targets of performance maximising, cost reduction and customisation. Seven models of technology life-cycles are considered to keep track of technology changes over time by following patterns for product development activities. The empirical part of the study is based on analysing a high-tech infrastructure provider on four technology generations. This study depicts different trends of product development activities over technology life-cycles. Different technology generations can have positive and negative interactions which can be strategically beneficial. The managerial implications of this study include comprehensive insights of concurrent technology generations in the context of technology life-cycles which can be beneficial for companies product development planning.Keywords: product development; technology life-cycle; cost; customisation; technology generations; growth; maturity; declining technology; embryonic; technology gap; high technology.Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Shahmarichatghieh, M., Härkönen, J., Haapasalo, H. and Tolonen, A. (2016) 'Product development activities over technology life-cycles in different generations', Int.

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“…As competition in ICT innovation among nations becomes more intense in the theoretical and social paradigms of a national innovation system, there are growing demands for improved judgment, evaluation, and prediction of ICT capacity in order to improve a nation's competitiveness [2][3][4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technological-level evaluation using patent statistics: model and application in mobile communications

Cho

Park

2014

Cluster Comput

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Information and communication technology (ICT) has been a driving force of development for knowledgebased economies. In particular, as competition in mobile communications technological innovation among nations becomes more intense, there are growing demands for improved evaluation, judgment, and prediction of mobile communications technological capability in order to improve national ICT competitiveness. Technological capability refers to conceptual-level elements that capture technological competitiveness in operation. A technological level can be defined for making comparisons of one technological capability with another. Patent statistics have been used by economists and researchers in the field of innovation to analyze current and forecast technological directions. This paper evaluates relative technological capability in terms of patent statistics for some technology domains. We propose a patent statistic model for relative technological capability based on patent activity, intensity, market-power, and citation index for mobile communications technologies at a national level. In particular, it gives a technological-level evaluation of 3G, 3G transitional, and 4G mobile communications for the US, EU, Japan, China, and Korea.

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Innovation forecasting

Cited by 37 publications

References 12 publications

Discovering and assessing fields of expertise in nanomedicine: a patent co-citation network perspective

Discovering and assessing fields of expertise in nanomedicine: a patent co-citation network perspective

Product development activities over technology life-cycles in different generations

Technological-level evaluation using patent statistics: model and application in mobile communications

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