Innocent Bystanders or the Forgotten Actors? The Role of Parties and Candidates in Building Electoral Campaign Momentum

Abstract

Do party or candidate campaigns boost momentum? Momentum in election campaigns is significant because it indicates a greater perception of the likelihood that a party or candidate will perform well, and also because that brings with it an improvement in credibility as a viable contender. Existing explanations of changes in the perception of popularity of candidates and parties over an election campaign relate largely to the impact of media coverage and opinion polls. What is frequently absent is any discussion of the impact of party and candidate campaigns. This is a curious omission since it effectively ignores the central actors in electoral contests – the parties and the candidates. This article seeks to address this lacuna by assessing whether campaign efforts deliver electoral momentum. Using data from three British general elections, we find strong evidence to indicate that campaign efforts at the constituency-level play a key role in delivering momentum.