Inland waterway transport: Modelling the probability of accidents

Roeleven, D.; Stipdonk, H L; Kok, Matthijs; Vries, W.A. de

doi:10.1016/0925-7535(94)00020-4

Cited by 54 publications

(36 citation statements)

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“…To address this safety concern some recent studies have focused on port navigational safety issues from different aspects; such as analyses of trends and causes of accidents (2,4,5,8); analyses of injuries and fatalities in port water accidents (1,2); analyses of involved parties in port water conflicts (7); and modeling accident probabilities (9). These studies analyzed port water incidents to address the general safety issues in port navigation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hierarchical Modeling of Perceived Collision Risks in Port Fairways

Debnath

Chin

2009

Transportation Research Record

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Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Despite the extent of recent works done on port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot's perception of collision risks in port fairways. This paper uses a hierarchical ordered probit model to investigate associations between perceived risks and the geometric and traffic characteristics of fairways and the pilot attributes. Perceived risk data, collected through a risk perception survey conducted among the Singapore port pilots, are used to calibrate the model. Intra-class correlation coefficient justifies use of the hierarchical model in comparison with an ordinary model. Results show higher perceived risks in fairways attached to anchorages, and in those featuring sharper bends and higher traffic operating speeds. Lesser risks are perceived in fairways attached to shoreline and confined waters, and in those with one-way traffic, traffic separation scheme, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Risk is also found to be perceived higher in night.Keywords: Navigational collision risk, Risk perception, Fairway, Harbor pilot, Hierarchical regression. Please cite this article as: INTRODUCTIONNavigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Navigational collisions account for a substantial portion of major shipping accidents in port waters, as reported by a number of researchers (e.g., 1-5). Furthermore, the increasing growth of world fleet (see, 6) is likely to result in increased traffic movements within busy seaports, which in turn could increase collision likelihood in these congested and restricted waters (5, 7).To address this safety concern some recent studies have focused on port navigational safety issues from different aspects; such as analyses of trends and causes of accidents (2,4,5,8); analyses of injuries and fatalities in port water accidents (1, 2); analyses of involved parties in port water conflicts (7); and modeling accident probabilities (9). These studies analyzed port water incidents to address the general safety issues in port navigation. To address the behavioral issues in port navigational safety, some studies focused on pilot fatigue (10-12); sleep and watchkeeping (13); mental workload (14); and the pilot's operational relationships and communications with ship crews (15, 16). Despite the extent of works done, little is known about other behavioral issues, particularly on pilot's perception of collision risks.Studying pilot's perception of collision risks is important because risk perception is considered as a precursor of an individual's actual behavior (see 17). Cohn et. al. (18) indicated that risk perception is negatively related to risk behavior in general, i.e., a lower level of perceived risk is associated with a higher probability that a pilot would be involved in such risk. Thus, by examining their perception of risk, the pilot's behavioral characteristics can be understood.This paper aims at examining the relationships between perceived...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hierarchical Modeling of Perceived Collision Risks in Port Fairways

Debnath

Chin

2009

Transportation Research Record

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“…Understanding those effects is important for developing targeted countermeasures for improving safety, as well as for setting up guidelines for safe navigation. Roeleven et al (1995) modeled collision risk by using historical collision data in order to identify the influencing factors related to waterway geometry. While this study provided a good understanding of the geometric factors, it ignored the factors related to traffic and regulatory control characteristics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Port Water Collision Risk Using Traffic Conflicts

2011

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Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions. INTRODUCTION.Maintaining smooth and collision-free traffic movements in port fairways is one of the top-priority concerns in many seaports. However, navigational collisions account for a substantial portion of the major types of shipping incidents in port waters. Many studies (Goossens and Glansdorp, 1998;Akten, 2004;Darbra and Casal, 2004;Liu, Liang et al., 2006;Liu, Pedersen et al., 2006;Yip, 2008) have reported that collisions are over-represented in port water incidents. Collisions are also identified as one of the most severe types of incidents (IMO, 1998), thus making them a major safety concern for many seaports.Risk of collisions in port waters is likely to increase with the gradual increase of shipping traffic in numbers and sizes over the past decades. The world fleet is increasing in number (see Soares and Teixeira, 2001) which may result in increased traffic movements within port waters, consequently increasing the risk of collision. The number of traffic movements on a busy fairway in port waters can be as high as 2000 per day (Yip, 2008) and the number is expected to increase with the continuing growth of traffic. Such a high number of movements may result in more collisions and near-misses. More importantly, navigational traffic is increasing in size (Faulkner, 2003) resulting in a higher number of large ships in port waters. The larger ships have reduced maneuverability and thus face a consequent increase in the risk of collision (Akten, 2004), especially in the port waters where navigation room is restricted by land obstacles.To address this safety concern, some recent studies have focused on examining trends and causes of collisions (Goossens and Glansdorp, 1998;Akten, 2004;Darbra and Casal, 2004;Liu, Liang et al., 2006), whereas some (Darbra and Casal, 2004;Yip, 2008) have addressed the issues related to consequences of collisions (i.e., injuries and fatalities). Desp...

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“…The USCG tried to prioritize federal spending to improve port infrastructures using a classical statistical analysis of nationwide accident data (USCG 1973, Maio et al 1991. More recently, researchers have used probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission 1975) in the maritime domain (Hara and Nakamura 1995, Roeleven et al 1995, Kite-Powell et al 1996, Slob 1998, Fowler and Sorgard 2000, Trbojevic and Carr 2000, Wang 2000, Guedes Soares and Teixeira 2001 by examining risk in the context of maritime transportation systems (NRC 1999).…”

Section: Risk Assessment and Management In Maritime Transportationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We constructed an accident probability model using the relationships between the vessel's operating environment, triggering incidents, and accidents (Roeleven et al 1995). The combination of organizational and situational factors that describes the state of the system in which an accident may occur is termed an opportunity for incident (OFI).…”

Section: Defining Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using the log-linear accident probability model (Roeleven 1995), we obtained relative conditional probabilities through a regression analysis of pairwise comparison surveys (Bradley and Terry 1952) constructed for the pilots, captains, and chief engineers with operational experience in PWS. PWS oil-shipping companies, SERVS, and regional representatives on the PWS steering committee made these substantive experts available for elicitation sessions.…”

Section: The System Risk-simulation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment

et al. 2002

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After the grounding of the Exxon Valdez and its subsequent oil spill, all parties with interests in Prince William Sound (PWS) were eager to prevent another major pollution event. While they implemented several measures to reduce the risk of an oil spill, the stakeholders disagreed about the effectiveness of these measures and the potential effectiveness of further proposed measures. They formed a steering committee to represent all the major stakeholders in the oil industry, in the government, in local industry, and among the local citizens. The steering committee hired a consultant team, which created a detailed model of the PWS system, integrating system simulation, data analysis, and expert judgment. The model was capable of assessing the current risk of accidents involving oil tankers operating in the PWS and of evaluating measures aimed at reducing this risk. The risk model showed that actions taken prior to the study had reduced the risk of oil spill by 75 percent, and it identified measures estimated to reduce the accident frequency by an additional 68 percent, including improving the safety-management systems of the oil companies and stationing an enhanced-capability tug, called the Gulf Service, at Hinchinbrook Entrance. In all, various stakeholders made multimillion dollar investments to reduce the risk of further oil spills based on the results of the risk assessment.

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Inland waterway transport: Modelling the probability of accidents

Cited by 54 publications

References 3 publications

Hierarchical Modeling of Perceived Collision Risks in Port Fairways

Hierarchical Modeling of Perceived Collision Risks in Port Fairways

Modelling Port Water Collision Risk Using Traffic Conflicts

The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment

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