Inland water bodies in Chile can locally increase rainfall intensity

Pizarro, Roberto; García‐Chevesich, Pablo; Valdés, Rodrigo; Domínguez, Francina; Hossain, Faisal; Ffolliott, Peter F.; Olivares, Claudio; Morales, Carolina; Balocchi, Francisco; Bro, P.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.012

Cited by 23 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Degu et al (2011) reported that large dams influenced local climate mostly in Mediterranean, and semi-arid climates, while for humid climates the influence is less apparent [21]. The phenomenon that higher rainfall intensities at locations closer to inland water bodies was accentuated in dryer climates [15].…”

Section: Role Of Tgr On Extreme Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation under a Changing Climate in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA)

et al. 2018

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Abstract:The Three Gorges Dam (TGD) is one of the largest hydroelectric projects in the world. Monitoring the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation offers valuable information for adaptation and mitigation strategies and reservoir management schemes. This study examined variations in extreme precipitation over the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA) in China to investigate the potential role of climate warming and Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). The trends in extreme precipitation over the TGRA were investigated using the iterative-based Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator, based on weather station daily data series and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data series. The mean and density distribution of extreme precipitation indices between pre-dam and post -dam, pre-1985 and post-1985, and near and distant reservoir area were assessed by the Mann-Whitney test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The ratio of extreme precipitation to non-extreme precipitation became larger. The precipitation was characterized by increases in heavy precipitation as well as decreases in light and moderate rain. Comparing extreme precipitation indices between pre-1985 (cooling) and post-1985 (warming) indicated extreme precipitation has changed to become heavier. Under climate warming, the precipitation amount corresponding to more than the 95th percentile increased at the rate of 6.48%/ • C. Results from comparing extreme precipitation for the pre-and post-dam, near reservoir area (NRA) and away from the reservoir area (ARA) imply an insignificant role of the TGR on rainfall extremes over the TGRA. Moreover, the impoundment of TGR did not exert detectable impacts on the surface relative humidity (RH) and water vapor pressure (WP).

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Section: Role Of Tgr On Extreme Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…arid climates, while for humid climates the influence is less apparent [21]. The phenomenon that higher rainfall intensities at locations closer to inland water bodies was accentuated in dryer climates [15]. Additional to data from weather stations, TRMM precipitation data were also included.…”

Section: Role Of Tgr On Extreme Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation under a Changing Climate in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA)

et al. 2018

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“…March-May and September-November). The March-May (MAM) seasonal rainfall over Uganda is generally influenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone [2,8]; the monsoon winds of East Africa [32,33]; the Indian ocean dipole [2,7]; the humid Congo airmass [6]; the tropical cyclones, semi-permanent subtropical anticyclones and easterly waves [7,8]; the complex topography [33], vegetation and inland water bodies which modulate local rainfall [8,34]. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone migrates north and southwards over the equator two times a year, which brings two rainfall seasons in the region i.e.…”

Section: The Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Quantitative Rainfall Prediction Using Ensemble Analogues in the Tropics: Case study of Uganda

Mugume¹,

Mesquita²,

Bamutaze³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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; Tel.: +256-701-349477 ‡ These authors contributed equally to this work. Abstract:Accurate and timely rainfall prediction enhances productivity and can aid proper planning in sectors such as agriculture, health, transport and water resources. This study is aimed at improving rainfall prediction using ensemble methods. It first assesses the performance of six convective schemes (Kain-Fritsch (KF); Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ); Grell-Fretas (GF); Grell 3D ensemble (G3); New-Tiedke (NT) and Grell-Devenyi (GD)) using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) focusing on the March-May 2013 rainfall period over Uganda. 18 ensemble members are generated from the three best performing convective schemes (i.e. KF, GF & G3). The performance of three ensemble methods (i.e. ensemble mean (EM); ensemble mean analogue (EMA) and multi-member analogue ensemble (MAEM)) is also analyzed using the RMSE and ME. The EM presented a smaller RMSE compared to individual schemes

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“…Linsley et al 1977, Témez 1978, Pizarro and Novoa 1986, Chow et al 1994, Pizarro et al 2001, UNESCO 2007, Pizarro et al 2012, 2013.…”

Section: General Analysis Of the Historic Streamflowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, it was clear that in the semi-arid zone the log- normal PDF fits more accurately because rainfall and streamflow data there have more variability (Pizarro et al 2012). The Gumbel PDF was chosen for further analysis of the 30-year flood values because it has been used with good results in diverse hydrological studies in Chile (Pizarro et al 2001, UNESCO 2007, 2012, 2013. A return period of 30 years was considered appropriate in the study of temporal streamflow trends in the medium term, because it is one of the periods used in the design of hydrological works such as sewage and drainage systems, and as most of the evidence of climate change has become evident in the most recent decades.…”

Section: Flood Frequency and Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-decadal variations in annual maximum peak flows in semi-arid and temperate regions of Chile

Pizarro¹,

Vera²,

Valdés³

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor H. Lins Citation Pizarro, R., Vera, M., Valdés, R., Helwig, B., and Olivares, C., 2013. Multi-decadal variations in annual maximum peak flows in semi-arid and temperate regions of Chile. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 300-311.Abstract In determining the possible influence of climate change, it is important to understand the temporal and spatial variability in streamflow response for diverse climate zones. Thus, the aim of this study was to determine the presence of changes in annual maximum peak flow for two climate zones in Chile over the past few decades. A general analysis, a flood frequency analysis and a trend analysis were used to study such changes between 1975 and 2008 for a semi-arid (29°S-32°S) and a temperate (36°S-38°S) climatic zone. The historic annual maxima, minima and mean flows, as well as decadal mean peak flow, were compared over the period of record. The Gumbel distribution was selected to compare the 30-year flood values of two ±15-year intervals, which showed that streamflow decreased by an average of 19.5% in the semi-arid stations and increased by an average of 22.6% in the temperate stations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to investigate the temporal changes in streamflows, with negative trends being observed in 87% of the stations analysed in the semi-arid zone, and positive trends in 57% of those analysed in the temperate zone. These differences in streamflow response between climate zones could be related to recent documented increases in altitude of the zero-degree isotherm in the Andes Mountains of Chile, since most of the significant positive and negative changes were detected in first-order rivers located closer to this mountain range.Key words climate change influence; flood frequency analysis; probability distribution functions; Mann-Kendall test; peak flows; zero-degree isotherm; semi-arid climate; temperate climate Variations multidécennales des débits de pointe maximaux annuels dans les régions semi-arides et tempérées du ChiliRésumé Pour déterminer l'influence possible du changement climatique, il est important de comprendre la variabilité temporelle et spatiale de la réponse en débits pour diverses zones climatiques. Ainsi, l'objet de cette étude était de déterminer l'existence de changements dans le débit de pointe maximum annuel de deux zones climatiques du Chili au cours des dernières décennies. Une analyse générale, une analyse de la fréquence des crues et une analyse de tendances ont été utilisées pour étudier les changements des valeurs du débit de pointe maximal annuel entre 1975 et 2008 pour la zone semi-aride (29°S à 32°S) et la zone tempérée (36°S à 38°S). Les maximums, minimums et moyennes historiques annuels, ainsi que le débit de pointe décennal ont été comparés sur la période d'observation. Nous avons choisi la distribution de Gumbel pour estimer les valeurs des crues tricennales (30 ans) de deux intervalles de 15 ans, ce qui a montré que la valeur de ce débit a diminué en moyenne de 19,5% dans les stations se...

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Inland water bodies in Chile can locally increase rainfall intensity

Cited by 23 publications

References 21 publications

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation under a Changing Climate in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA)

Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation under a Changing Climate in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA)

Improving Quantitative Rainfall Prediction Using Ensemble Analogues in the Tropics: Case study of Uganda

Multi-decadal variations in annual maximum peak flows in semi-arid and temperate regions of Chile

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