Initiatives, public trust, and citizen engagement during crises: A comparative analysis across Baltic states

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the interplay between government initiatives, public trust in government, and citizen engagement within the context of two distinct crisis scenarios: a global health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and an international security crisis caused by Russian aggression against Ukraine. A two-stage biennial survey methodology is used to collect quantitative data. In the first phase, which took place in the context of a global health crisis, an omnibus survey was conducted, involving a randomly selected sample of 3,175 respondents from three Baltic countries: Estonia (n = 1002), Latvia (n = 1017), and Lithuania (n = 1006). In the second stage, which took place in the context of an international security crisis, a random sample was carried out of 2026 respondents from two Baltic countries: Estonia (n = 1002) and Lithuania (n = 1024). The analysis examined causal relationships in political, rational, and social trust.The findings reveal that the relationship between trust in the government and government initiatives that foster political, rational, or emotional trust is stronger during international security crises than during health crises. This means that citizens perceive government behavior as more credible in the context of external security threats. Research on the interaction between government behavior and citizen participation is more nuanced than on public trust. In general, government initiatives have a greater impact on citizen participation than public trust in both crises. This highlights the positive impact of government initiatives in cooperation with the population. AcknowledgmentThe study is financed from the funds of the study-supporting project “Research on the Management of Security and Defense Institutions of Small States” (General Jonas Žemaitis Lithuanian Military Academy, 2020-12-17, No. V-828).