Initial evaluations of a Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean ocean forecast system in the context of the Deepwater Horizon disaster

Zaron, Edward D.; Fitzpatrick, Patrick J.; Cross, Scott; Harding, J. M.; Bub, Frank L.; Wiggert, Jerry D.; Ko, Dong S.; Lau, Y.; Woodard, Katharine; Mooers, Christopher N. K.

doi:10.1007/s11707-014-0508-x

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…The AMSEAS model reproduced the oil spill transport in response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill event with a particular focus on pollution pulses that penetrate into the estuaries east of the MR (Zaron et al 2015). This model was also used to predict likely drift tracks of sea turtle carcasses in the north central GOM (Nero et al 2013).…”

Section: Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Blue crab larval dispersal highlights population connectivity and implications for fishery management

Criales¹,

Chérubin²,

Gandy³

et al. 2019

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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In the Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico (GOM), the blue crab Callinectes sapidus fishery is managed at a regional scale, and its assessment does not consider the population structure of the species. To understand connectivity of the blue crab population, we simulated larval dispersal using a biophysical model driven by high-resolution ocean currents and including early life-history traits of the species. Simulations were conducted during 2015 and 2016, and larvae were released from locations along Florida's GOM and Atlantic coasts. A high degree of local larval retention was observed in Florida's GOM waters, mainly during summer when weak southeastern winds tend to yield a shoreward net flow. Results demonstrated clear evidence of connectivity between the Gulf coast of Florida population and those of Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana, suggesting that the blue crab populations in the GOM are intermixed and the hypothesized boundary (in Florida) of 2 stocks needs further consideration. Outputs of the model also indicated connectivity between the blue crab populations of Florida's Gulf coast and the South Atlantic Bight (SAB). Larval trajectories showed inter-annual variability driven by the interaction of winds, Loop Current (LC) intrusions in the northern GOM, LC eddies and their cyclonic counterparts, and the Mississippi River plume. The latter provides a conduit for larval transport from the GOM to the SAB. These findings provide evidence of the physical oceanographic processes that sustain the homogenous genetic population structure for blue crabs between SAB and GOM populations, highlighting the need for collaborative management in US waters.

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Section: Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Blue crab larval dispersal highlights population connectivity and implications for fishery management

Criales¹,

Chérubin²,

Gandy³

et al. 2019

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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“…25,26 Dietrich et al 27 studied surface trajectories of oil transport along the nGoM coastline with a coupled numerical model system of Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) and ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) Model and showed that a hurricane landfall during an oil spill would move oil from the shelf into the MSS and toward the coastline. Zaron et al 28 showed using an ocean model that cyclones dramatically altered oil spill transport pushing oil into the Western MSS in Summer 2010 following DWH oil spill and showed that the estuarine intrusion and shoreline impacts from DWH were associated with edge influences of Hurricane Alex in late June 2010 followed by a baroclinic cyclone 1 week later. Arnone et al 29 used a combination of satellite products and physical models to show that a significant amount of offshore surface waters may exchange across the shelf moving onshore from the shelf break to the inner-shelf.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inflow of shelf waters into the Mississippi Sound and Mobile Bay estuaries in October 2015

Cambazoglu

Soto

Howden

et al. 2017

J. Appl. Remote Sens

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Abstract. The exchange of coastal waters between the Mississippi Sound (MSS), Mobile Bay, and Mississippi Bight is an important pathway for oil and pollutants into coastal ecosystems. This study investigated an event of strong and persistent inflow of shelf waters into MSS and Mobile Bay during October 2015 by combining in situ measurements, satellite ocean color data, and ocean model predictions. Navy Coastal Ocean Model predicted high-salinity shelf waters continuously flowing into the estuarine system and forecasted low-salinity waters trapped inside the estuaries which did not flush out until the passage of tropical cyclone Patricia's remnants in late October. The October 2015 chlorophyll-a anomaly was significantly low inside and outside the MSS for the 2003 to 2015 time series. Similar low-chlorophyll-a anomalies were only seen in 2003. The October 2015 mean in situ salinities were up to 8 psu higher than mean from 2007 to 2015, and some estuarine stations showed persistent salinities above 30 psu for almost a month in agreement with model predictions. October 2015 was associated with low fall seasonal discharge, typical of fall season, and wind which was persistently out of the east to southeast °. These persistent wind conditions were linked to the observed anomalous conditions. © The Authors. Published by SPIE under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. Distribution or reproduction of this work in whole or in part requires full attribution of the original publication, including its DOI.

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“…The AMSEAS model has been deployed in response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill event in 2010 (Zaron et al, 2015). A simulation was conducted using a Lagrangian particle tracker with random walk diffusion of archived AMSEAS data, with a particular focus on pollution pulses that penetrate into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River.…”

Section: Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A simulation was conducted using a Lagrangian particle tracker with random walk diffusion of archived AMSEAS data, with a particular focus on pollution pulses that penetrate into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River. This modeling formulation was capable of reproducing the oil spill transport (Zaron et al, 2015). This model was also used to predict likely drift tracks of sea turtles carcasses in the north central Gulf of Mexico (Nero et al, 2013).…”

Section: Hydrodynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Mesophotic Coral Ecosystem Connectivity for Proposed Expansion of a Marine Sanctuary in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Larval Dynamics

et al. 2018

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In coral reef ecosystems, mesophotic coral habitat ( >30 m to the end of the photic zone) are extensions of shallow reefs and contribute to the persistence of coral reef populations. In the North West Gulf of Mexico (NW GOM), the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary (FGBNMS) is an isolated reef ecosystem comprising contiguous shallow and mesophotic reefs habitats on two central banks along the margin of the continental shelf. A future expansion of the sanctuary is proposed to include additional mesophotic banks and aims at building a network of protected areas in the NW GOM to ensure the persistence of the coral reef populations inhabiting the sanctuary. To evaluate the feasibility of this expansion and investigate the overall dynamics of coral species in the region, we studied the patterns of larval connectivity of Montastraea cavernosa, a common depth generalist coral species, using a larval dispersal modeling approach. Our results highlighted larval exports from the NW GOM banks to the northeastern and southwestern GOM, larval connectivity between all banks investigated in this study, and the potential for exporting larvae from mesophotic to shallower reefs. Our study associated with Studivan and Voss (2018; associate manuscript) demonstrates the relevance of combining modeling and genetic methods to consider both demographic and genetic timescales for the evaluation of the connectivity dynamics of marine populations. In the case of the NW GOM, both studies support the future management plan for expanding FGBNMS.

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Initial evaluations of a Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean ocean forecast system in the context of the Deepwater Horizon disaster

Cited by 18 publications

References 64 publications

Blue crab larval dispersal highlights population connectivity and implications for fishery management

Blue crab larval dispersal highlights population connectivity and implications for fishery management

Inflow of shelf waters into the Mississippi Sound and Mobile Bay estuaries in October 2015

Assessment of Mesophotic Coral Ecosystem Connectivity for Proposed Expansion of a Marine Sanctuary in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Larval Dynamics

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