Infrastructure seismic risk assessment: an overview and integration to contemporary open tool towards global usage

Abstract

Infrastructures are critical for the functioning of society. Due to globalization, damages between different components of infrastructure systems can cross international boundaries, resulting in broad economic and social impacts. Hence, it is fundamental to develop powerful tools for the assessment of infrastructure risk, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. Past studies covering infrastructure risk assessment are limited to a few countries, partly because for assessing the infrastructure risk, issues due to the complexity of the systems, like paucity and heterogeneity of the data and methods, the consideration of dependencies between components and systems, modeling of ground shaking in terms of scenario and probabilistic approach, taking into account site effects, spatial variability and cross correlation of ground motion at the urban scale, as well as consideration of risk metrics tailored to infrastructure, still remain partially or not properly answered. Moreover, the presently available infrastructure risk assessment tools are not sufficiently illustrative, user-friendly, and comprehensive to meet actual needs. To this end, the paper making an overview of these issues proposes a comprehensive approach that leverages the main strength of existing infrastructure risk methodologies, integrating them into a powerful open-source tool and providing common platform from hazard to risk analysis that will serve for global and easy usage. The methodology and its implementation are illustrated through a test-bed study of the water supply network of the city of Thessaloniki in Greece, considering an Mw 6.5 scenario of the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake and an event based probabilistic approach and, simultaneously evaluating the sensitivity of cross spatial correlation.