Infrastructure Development in Germany Under Stagnating Demand Conditions: A New Paradigm?

Zumkeller, Dirk; Chlond, Bastian; Manz, Wilko

doi:10.3141/1864-16

Cited by 33 publications

(18 citation statements)

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“…On the other hand, a recent study on German travel demand forecast showed that stagnation in car use have been observed in Germany in the last recent years (Zumkeller et al 2007). The same study projected that with respect to the demographic changes in Germany and the increased probability of more scarce and definitely more expensive oil resources, further stagnation of passenger traffic demand appears imminent.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Variation of households’ car ownership across time: application of a panel data model

et al. 2009

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For economic and environmental policy formulation and with the effort of creating less car dependent societies, it is important to study the changing characteristics of car ownership in a household through time as well as factors responsible of these variations. There is a vast body of literature on empirical studies of car ownership and use. These studies have investigated the socio-economic background of the decision maker, the built environment and the perception associated with owning a car as determinant factors of car ownership and use. In most cases, these analyses have been carried out using crosssectional data sets. However, the analysis of factors determining changes in travel behavior of an individual or household requires information on their behavior over time (longitudinal data set). In this study, the German Mobility Panel (1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006) is used to examine variation of car ownership through time and across households. The panel data modeling results showed that there are variations of car ownership between households whereas changes in car ownership of a given household over time (within household variations) are insignificant. The influence of other factors such as the households' socio-economic background, the availability of public transportation and shopping/leisure facilities, perception on parking difficulties and satisfaction with existing public transportation services on the car owning characteristics of households is also presented and discussed in this paper.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Variation of households’ car ownership across time: application of a panel data model

et al. 2009

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“…After decades of strong growth in aggregate travel demand fuelled mainly by increasing car use, there is a strong indication that the growth of everyday travel at the aggregate level is slowing down or even stagnating (Litman, 2006;Newmann & Kenworthy, 2011;Zumkeller, Chlond, & Manz, 2004). Particularly, automobile travel demand seems to be decreasing, stagnating, or growing only slowly in Western Europe and North America (Le Vine, Jones, & Polak, 2009;Newmann & Kenworthy, 2011;Puentes & Tomer, 2008).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 98%

Men Shape a Downward Trend in Car Use among Young Adults—Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries

et al. 2012

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This paper investigates trends in the travel behaviour of young adults in Germany, France, Great Britain, Japan, Norway, and the USA over the past few decades with a focus on car availability and car travel. The trend analysis relies on micro-data from over 20 National Travel Surveys from the study countries dating back to the mid-1970s. The analysis of the survey data is supplemented by official statistics on licence holding. On this basis, this paper compiles a body of evidence for changes in mobility patterns among young adults in industrialized countries over the past few decades. The findings indicate that since the turn of the millennium, access to cars, measured in terms of drivers' licences and household car ownership, has decreased in most study countries-especially for men. Moreover, average daily car travel distance has decreased in most study countries, again especially for men. In France, Japan, and most significantly in the USA, the decrease in car travel has led to a reduction in total everyday travel by young travellers. In Great Britain, the decline in car travel was partly, and in Germany fully, compensated by an increased use of alternative modes of transport.

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“…This trend has been paralleled by an increasingly older age structure of the German population as well as by an increase in the participation rate of women in the pool of drivers and in the labor force, with the latter rising from 55.1% in 1994 to 59.2% in 200459.2% in (EUROSTAT, 2006. While several studies have suggested that these changes will have profound consequences for transport demand in Germany (Limbourg, 1999;Just, 2004;Zumkeller, Chlond and Manz, 2004), the anticipated impacts are largely speculative, and there have been few attempts to quantify how the underlying variables affect travel behavior at the individual level.…”

Section: The Explanatory Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gender and the Automobile

Vance

Iovanna

2007

Transportation Research Record

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The working papers published in the Series constitute work in progress circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comments. Views expressed represent exclusively the authors' own opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of the editors. Terms of use: Documents in Gender and the AutomobileAn Analysis of Non-work Service TripsAbstract Focusing on individual motorists in car-owning households in Germany, this analysis econometrically investigates the determinants of automobile travel for non-work service activities against the backdrop of two questions: 1) Does gender play a role in determining the probability of car use and the distance driven? 2) If so, how is this role mitigated or exacerbated by other socioeconomic attributes of the individual and the household in which they reside? Drawing on a panel of data collected between 1996 and 2003, we specify Heckman's sample selection model to control for biases that could otherwise arise from the existence of unobservable variables that determine both the discrete and continuous choices pertaining to car use. The results indicate that although women, on average, undertake more non-work travel than men, they undertake less of such travel by car, implying a greater reliance on other modes. Moreover, employment status, age, the number of children, automobile availability, and the proximity to public transit are all found to have significantly different effects on the probability of non-work car travel between men and women, but -with the exception of automobile availability -not on the distance driven. Taken together, these results suggest that policies targeted at reducing automobile dependency and associated negative externalities such as congestion are unlikely to have uniform effects across the sexes, findings having implications for both policy evaluation as well as travel demand forecasting.JEL Classification: R21, R41

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Infrastructure Development in Germany Under Stagnating Demand Conditions: A New Paradigm?

Cited by 33 publications

References 1 publication

Variation of households’ car ownership across time: application of a panel data model

Variation of households’ car ownership across time: application of a panel data model

Men Shape a Downward Trend in Car Use among Young Adults—Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries

Gender and the Automobile

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