Information Manipulation and Repression: A Theory and Evidence from the COVID Response in Russia

Lamberova, Natalia; Sonin, Konstantin

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4174501

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Partisanship also plays a role—county websites are less likely to mention COVID in areas with a heavily Republican electorate ( Hansen et al 2021 ). Likewise, publicizing inaccurate information at the regional level, such as understating the number of COVID deaths, reduced the willingness of citizens to take effective anti-virus measures, leading to higher death rates in Russia ( Lamberova and Sonin 2022 ) and undermined confidence in government in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria ( Andrade et al 2020 ). Nevertheless, research has shown that there are ways for skilled communicators to break through the noise.…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Juneau, Alaska’s Successful Response to COVID-19: A Case Study of Adaptive Leadership in a Complex System

Powell

Orttung

Topkok

et al. 2022

State and Local Government Review

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Juneau, Alaska, kept COVID-19 deaths lower than in other similar jurisdictions. We argue that adaptive leadership—the early decisions and actions of Juneau’s leaders, effective communications, and emergent new collaborative structures—in the context of municipal ownership of key assets enabled Juneau’s success. The result of 61 interviews and follow-up research, this case study contributes a better understanding of which institutional design, communication, and collaborative factors mattered in responding to the pandemic. Adaptive leadership provides a better explanation for Juneau’s success than alternatives that focus on its isolation, home-rule status, and socio-economic structure.

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Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Juneau, Alaska’s Successful Response to COVID-19: A Case Study of Adaptive Leadership in a Complex System

Powell

Orttung

Topkok

et al. 2022

State and Local Government Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Previous studies on the impact of regime type on data manipulation have mostly focused on the reporting of data in autocratic contexts (e.g. Carlitz & McLellan, 2021;Chen et al, 2019;Lamberova & Sonin, 2022;Wallace, 2022, Chapter 6). They do not, therefore, provide a systematic comparison between data manipulation in autocratic and democratic countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regime Type and Data Manipulation: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Wigley

2024

Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law

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Context: This study examines whether autocratic governments are more likely to manipulate health data than democratic governments. The COVID-19 pandemic presents a unique opportunity to examine this question owing to its global impact. Methods: Three distinct indicators of COVID-19 data manipulation were constructed for nearly all sovereign states. Each indicator was then regressed on democracy and controls for unintended misreporting. A machine learning approach was then used to determine whether any of the specific features of democracy are more predictive of manipulation. Findings: Democracy was found to be negatively associated with all three measures of manipulation, even after running a battery of robustness checks. Absence of opposition party autonomy and free and fair elections were found to be the most important predictors of deliberate undercounting. Conclusions: The manipulation of data in autocracies denies citizens the opportunity to protect themselves against health risks, hinders the ability of international organizations and donors to identify effective policies, and3 makes it difficult for scholars to assess the impact of political institutions on population health. This suggests that health advocates and scholars should use alternative methods to estimate health outcomes in countries where opposition parties lack autonomy or must participate in uncompetitive elections.

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“…Previous studies on the impact of regime type on data manipulation have mostly focused on the reporting of data in autocratic contexts (e.g. Carlitz and McLellan 2021;Chen et al 2019;Lamberova and Sonin 2022;Wallace 2022, Chapter 6). They do not, therefore, provide a systematic comparison between data manipulation in autocratic and democratic countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regime type and Data Manipulation: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Wigley¹

2023

Preprint

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Autocratic and democratic leaders have an incentive to misreport data that may reveal policy failure. However, it is easier for autocratic leaders to fabricate data because they are not subject to scrutiny from media, opposition parties, and civil society. This suggests that autocratic governments are more likely to manipulate policy-relevant statistics than democratic governments. It is inherently difficult to test that claim because researchers typically do not have access to data from sources other than the government. The COVID-19 pandemic represents a unique opportunity to examine the relationship between regime type and data manipulation because of its widespread impact, as well as the ability to compare reported with excess deaths and test for statistical anomalies in reported data. Based on regressions for undercounting and statistical irregularities that take into account unintentional mismeasurement, I find that autocratic governments are more likely to deliberately under-report the impact of COVID-19 than their democratic counterparts.

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Information Manipulation and Repression: A Theory and Evidence from the COVID Response in Russia

Cited by 4 publications

References 53 publications

Juneau, Alaska’s Successful Response to COVID-19: A Case Study of Adaptive Leadership in a Complex System

Juneau, Alaska’s Successful Response to COVID-19: A Case Study of Adaptive Leadership in a Complex System

Regime Type and Data Manipulation: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Regime type and Data Manipulation: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

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