Information in Ecological Inference: An Introduction

King, Gary; Rosen, Ori; Tanner, Martin A.

doi:10.1017/cbo9780511510595.002

Cited by 49 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…66 A variety of other methods have subsequently been proposed that also combine both sources of information. 67 But few apply to tables as large as in Table 2 and none are used much in applications. As such, we developed new techniques to study voting in Weimar Germany that extend this approach combining deterministic and statistical information in a way that works for arbitrarily large tables.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler

King

Rosen

Tanner³

et al. 2008

J. Econ. Hist.

Self Cite

129

109

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The enormous Nazi voting literature rarely builds on modern statistical or economic research. By adding these approaches, we find that the most widely accepted existing theories of this era cannot distinguish the Weimar elections from almost any others in any country. Via a retrospective voting account, we show that voters most hurt by the depression, and most likely to oppose the government, fall into separate groups with divergent interests. This explains why some turned to the Nazis and others turned away. The consequences of Hitler's election were extraordinary, but the voting behavior that led to it was not.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler

King

Rosen

Tanner³

et al. 2008

J. Econ. Hist.

Self Cite

129

109

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Since the race of individual voters is typically unknown, one must infer turnout by race from aggregate data. A number of statistical methods have been developed to address this problem (e.g., Goodman 1953;King 1997;King, Rosen, and Tanner 2004;Wakefield 2004;Greiner and Quinn 2008;Imai, Lu, and Strauss 2008). Nevertheless, all of these methods suffer from a fundamental problem of indeterminacy, and as a result, in recent years, methodologists have turned to the idea of combining aggregate data with individual-level data (e.g., Wakefield 2004;Imai Lu, and Strauss 2008;Greiner and Quinn 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Ecological Inference by Predicting Individual Ethnicity from Voter Registration Records

2016

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Edited by Justin GrimmerIn both political behavior research and voting rights litigation, turnout and vote choice for different racial groups are often inferred using aggregate election results and racial composition. Over the past several decades, many statistical methods have been proposed to address this ecological inference problem. We propose an alternative method to reduce aggregation bias by predicting individual-level ethnicity from voter registration records. Building on the existing methodological literature, we use Bayes's rule to combine the Census Bureau's Surname List with various information from geocoded voter registration records. We evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology using approximately nine million voter registration records from Florida, where self-reported ethnicity is available. We find that it is possible to reduce the false positive rate among Black and Latino voters to 6% and 3%, respectively, while maintaining the true positive rate above 80%. Moreover, we use our predictions to estimate turnout by race and find that our estimates yields substantially less amounts of bias and root mean squared error than standard ecological inference estimates. We provide open-source software to implement the proposed methodology.

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“…Achen & Shively, 1995;King, 1997;King, Rosen, & Tanner, 2004), and if social groups live in a (partly) territorially segregated fashion.…”

Section: Data and Study Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can the Internet Increase Political Participation? An Analysis of Remote Electronic Voting’s Effect on Turnout

Bochsler

2009

SSRN Journal

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There are far-reaching expectations that electronic democracy will increase political participation, and include previously underrepresented groups in politics. So far, however, there is little empirical evidence to monitor such trends. In 2007, Estonia became the first country to organize national parliamentary elections in which all voters had a choice of casting their vote at traditional polls, or over the Internet. This study analyses individual data from a special survey of 1000 respondents, as well as aggregated election results for, the 234 Estonia municipalities. Instead of attracting new voters, it seems, Internet voting mostly substituted for existing votes at the polls. Furthermore instead of attracting social groups that usually abstain from elections, Internet voting has for the most part attracted the same politically well-established groups. Finally, it seems that the effects of this new voting technology are not politically neutral: Internet voters favoured political parties that receive strong support from the ethnic majority and from wealthy areas. If it is to have any effect on political participation, Internet voting seems poised to increase inequalities, rather than level them.

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Information in Ecological Inference: An Introduction

Cited by 49 publications

References 7 publications

Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler

Ordinary Economic Voting Behavior in the Extraordinary Election of Adolf Hitler

Improving Ecological Inference by Predicting Individual Ethnicity from Voter Registration Records

Can the Internet Increase Political Participation? An Analysis of Remote Electronic Voting’s Effect on Turnout

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