Information gap analysis of flood model uncertainties and regional frequency analysis

Abstract

[1] Flood risk analysis is subject to often severe uncertainties, which can potentially undermine flood management decisions. This paper explores the use of information gap theory to analyze the sensitivity of flood management decisions to uncertainties in flood inundation models and flood frequency analysis. Information gap is a quantified nonprobabilistic theory of robustness. To analyze uncertainties in flood modeling, an energy-bounded information gap model is established and applied first to a simplified uniform channel and then to a more realistic 2-D flood model. Information gap theory is then applied to the estimation of flood discharges using regional frequency analysis. The use of an information gap model is motivated by the notion that hydrologically similar sites are clustered in the space of their L moments. The information gap model is constructed around a parametric statistical flood frequency analysis, resulting in a hybrid model of uncertainty in which natural variability is handled statistically while epistemic uncertainties are represented in the information gap model. The analysis is demonstrated for sites in the Trent catchment, United Kingdom. The analysis is extended to address ungauged catchments, which, because of the attendant uncertainties in flood frequency analysis, are particularly appropriate for information gap analysis. Finally, the information gap model of flood frequency is combined with the treatment of hydraulic model uncertainties in an example of how both sources of uncertainty can be accounted for using information gap theory in a flood risk management decision.

Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection and urban development effects

“…I.-W. Jung et al: Quantifying uncertainty in urban flooding analysis considering hydro-climatic projection large uncertainty, identifying potential changes in flood risk according to climate and land use changes is an important area of concern to water resource managers and land use planners (Hine and Hall, 2010).…”

Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty

“…Info-Gap decision theory provides an approach to compare the ability of different management options to satisfy system performance criteria over an unbounded range of uncertainty and has been used for decision support in many fields from engineering to conservation science (Ben-Haim 2001;Regan et al 2005;McCarthy and Lindenmayer 2007) with one previous application related to water resources, (Hipel and Ben-Haim 1999) and one to flood risk (Hine and Hall 2010). The prospect of dealing with severe uncertainty forces preference away from what is optimum for a defined set of circumstance (to optimise) towards what is good enough over a wide range of possible circumstance (to satisfice).…”

“…Fig. 2 An Info-Gap exploration of uncertainty (Hine and Hall 2010) Graphs of robustness and opportuness are used to compare the performance of water management options as one or more parameters trend away from their central tendency into the range of uncertainty.…”

A Case Study of Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis of Building Levees to Mitigate the Joint Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

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