Influenza Viruses

Glezen, W. Paul; Couch, Robert B.

doi:10.1007/978-1-4615-8138-3_15

Cited by 12 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 208 publications

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“…For simplicity, it was assumed that all infected individuals were infectious for an average period of 2 days (irrespective of whether they experienced clinical symptoms) after an average latent period of 2 days. These assumptions imply an average serial interval (time interval between successive cases in a chain of transmission [7,8]) of 4 days, which is consistent with data on the time period between the first case and the first subsequent cases in households, and on viral shedding [9][10][11]. Given a recent study which found that the serial interval could be 3 days or shorter [12], we also explore the effect of assuming that the latent and infectious periods are each 1 .…”

Section: General Structure Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 52%

Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures

Vynnycky¹,

Edmunds²

2007

Epidemiol. Infect.

104

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SUMMARYMany countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The R 0 for Asian influenza was about 1 . 8 and 60-65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10 %) if R 0 is high (e.g. 2 . 5 or 3 . 5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22 % might be possible if it is low (1 . 8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.

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Section: General Structure Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 52%

Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures

Vynnycky¹,

Edmunds²

2007

Epidemiol. Infect.

104

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“…46 Even in that model, the average number of excess deaths per year was 29 000 in the last 8 years (versus 15 542 in the first 12 years). 47 Moreover, the "gold standard" of influenza diagnosis is uncertain, because it is defined by concordance of clinical symptoms, epidemic reporting, immunoassays, and viral cultures, all of which may be insensitive.…”

Section: Influenza Vaccination and All-cause Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Indeed, the increase in use of the influenza vaccine over the past 20 years may explain a portion of the decline in CHD, which to date has not been fully understood. 44 A more conservative estimate, based on the estimated attack rate of influenza in the United States each year (Ϸ10% to 20% of the adult population), 45,46 leads to an estimated 36 450 to 72 900 lives saved per year (Table). The 2 sets of assumptions yield different calculations, but each substantially exceeds the previous estimated 20 000 deaths per year.…”

Section: Influenza Vaccination and All-cause Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Influenza and Cardiovascular Disease

Madjid¹,

Naghavi²,

Litovsky³

et al. 2003

Circulation

161

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“…Myalgia may occur in association with fever and viral illness. 21,22 However, as an example, the myalgia associated with influenza is an uncommon clinical manifestation in children younger than 5 years, 21 an age group in which meningococcemia is most prevalent. 1,2,4 -9…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extremity Pain and Refusal to Walk in Children With Invasive Meningococcal Disease

Inkelis

O’Leary²,

Wang

et al. 2002

Pediatrics

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ABSTRACT. Objective. Early recognition of invasive meningococcal disease in children may be difficult. Extremity pain and refusal to walk (extremity symptoms) are uncommonly mentioned as clinical findings in children who present with this disease. We sought to determine 1) the frequency of extremity symptoms as part of the clinical presentation in children with invasive meningococcal disease and 2) whether these symptoms help identify children with otherwise unsuspected meningococcal disease.Methods. We reviewed the medical records of patients who were younger than 20 years and had invasive meningococcal disease from 1985 to 1996 at 3 pediatric referral centers. Children with extremity symptoms were identified and described. We compared clinical and laboratory findings and frequency of adverse outcomes between these children and those with invasive meningococcal disease without extremity symptoms.Results. We identified 274 children with invasive meningococcal disease, 45 (16%) of whom had either history or physical examination evidence of extremity pain (31) or refusal to walk (14) as part of their clinical presentations. Five of the 45 patients had arthritis at the time of presentation. Patients with extremity symptoms at presentation were significantly older (77.9 ؎ 62.2 vs 44.0 ؎ 56.9 months), had lower temperatures (38.8 ؎ 1.2°C vs 39.2 ؎ 1.2°C), and had higher band counts (28.2 ؎ 15.2% vs 18.1 ؎ 12.4%) than did patients without extremity symptoms. There were no significant differences, however, between groups with regard to rash, white blood cell counts, coagulation parameters, prevalence of meningitis, or adverse outcomes. Seventy-three (27%) of the 274 patients had unsuspected disease, and 5 (7%) of these had extremity symptoms at the time of diagnosis.Conclusions. Sixteen percent of children with invasive meningococcal disease have extremity symptoms at the time of diagnosis. These symptoms may help to identify some patients with otherwise unsuspected invasive meningococcal disease. Pediatrics 2002;110(1). URL: http://www.pediatrics.org/cgi/content/full/110/1/e3; meningococcal infections, fever, bacteremia, myalgia, limp.ABREVIATIONS. CSF, cerebrospinal fluid; WBC, white blood cell; PT, prothrombin time; PTT, partial thromboplastin time; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; DIC, disseminated intravascular coagulation.T he clinical manifestations of invasive meningococcal disease in children typically consist of fever with toxic clinical appearance, irritability, lethargy, nuchal rigidity, hypotension, and petechial/purpuric rash. 1-6 Some children with invasive meningococcal disease, however, present in a more subtle manner with fever without clinical toxicity and other nonspecific symptoms, such as cough, rhinorrhea, vomiting, and headache, resembling an upper respiratory tract infection or other viral illness. [5][6][7] Although early recognition and treatment of meningococcal disease decreases complications, 7 neither the physical examination nor the hematologic evaluation reliably enables health ...

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Influenza Viruses

Cited by 12 publications

References 208 publications

Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures

Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures

Influenza and Cardiovascular Disease

Extremity Pain and Refusal to Walk in Children With Invasive Meningococcal Disease

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