Influenza illness averted by influenza vaccination among school year children in Beijing, 2013‐2016

Zhang, Yi; Cao, Zhidong; Costantino, Valentina; Muscatello, David; Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad; Yang, Peng; Wang, Quanyi; MacIntyre, C. Raina

doi:10.1111/irv.12585

Cited by 8 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 17 publications

(36 reference statements)

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“…School-based influenza vaccination represents a powerful method of outreach due to its convenience [27–29] and the potential to reach large numbers of children. In this regard, such programs were found to be associated with decreased influenza-like illness and respiratory infection in vaccinated children, their contacts, and the community, as well as decreased excess respiratory mortality [9, 30–34]. However, few countries currently have such programs [32, 34].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Factors associated with childhood influenza vaccination in Israel: a cross-sectional evaluation

Glatman‐Freedman

Amir

Dichtiar

et al. 2019

Isr J Health Policy Res

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BackgroundVaccinating children against influenza has shown both direct and indirect beneficial effects. However, despite being offered free of charge, childhood influenza vaccine coverage in Israel has been low. Our objective was to evaluate the factors associated with childhood influenza vaccination in Israel.MethodsA cross-sectional language-specific telephone survey was conducted among adults 18 years or older, to examine childhood influenza vaccination practices and their associations with socio-demographic and relevant health variables. We further explored the reasons for these practices among parents. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with childhood influenza vaccine acceptance.ResultsOf a total of 6518 individuals contacted by mobile phone, 1165 eligible parents, ≥18 years old with children 1–18 years of age, were interviewed, and 1040 of them completed the survey successfully. Overall, factors associated with childhood influenza vaccination were younger child’s age, influenza vaccination of other family members and belonging to the Arab population group. No association was found between childhood influenza vaccination and routine childhood vaccine uptake. Several of the parents’ reasons for vaccine acceptance - preventing influenza or its transmission, awareness regarding the need for influenza vaccination and receipt of invitation to get vaccinated - differed significantly between Jewish and Arab parents. Several reasons reported by parents for not vaccinating children against influenza, indicated a likelihood to accept influenza vaccine outreach efforts. Such reasons were reported by 27.5% of Jewish parents and 37.5% of Arab parents.ConclusionsWe found that certain demographic factors were associated with childhood influenza vaccination in Israel. Several reasons described by the parent for not vaccinating their children indicate that outreach efforts are likely to increase childhood influenza vaccination. Addressing population group-specific needs is recommended to optimize the success of influenza vaccine outreach efforts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this regard, such programs were found to be associated with decreased influenza-like illness and respiratory infection in vaccinated children, their contacts, and the community, as well as decreased excess respiratory mortality [9, 30–34]. However, few countries currently have such programs [32, 34].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors associated with childhood influenza vaccination in Israel: a cross-sectional evaluation

Glatman‐Freedman

Amir

Dichtiar

et al. 2019

Isr J Health Policy Res

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“…13 Considering the difference of VE estimates and the aim of modeling the benefit of vaccination, VE estimates for these seasons and subtypes were assumed to be 20% in this study as already used in a previous model. 14 In this study, vaccine protection during the current season is considered constant and the protection of the previous season is assumed to vanish completely.…”

Section: Vaccination Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China

Zhang

Muscatello

Cao

et al. 2020

Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics

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Background: Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. Methods: The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible-exposedinfected-recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution. Results: The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released. Conclusion:In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered.

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“…As of December 2018, the total number of vaccinations was 298,341, which led to a significant decline in the number of EV-A71 cases in Beijing after 2016. Therefore, the prevalence of EV-A71 under non-vaccination after 2016 was reconstructed using a disease transmission kinetic model 24 . Figure 1 represents the monthly numbers of EV-A71 cases of three age groups in Beijing population from 2011 to 2018, after the statistical inferences and reconstruction.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018

Wang¹,

Cao²,

Zeng³

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Hand-foot-and-month disease (HFMD), especially the enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) subtype, is a major health problem in Beijing, China. Previous studies mainly used regressive models to forecast the prevalence of HFMD, ignoring its intrinsic age groups. This study aims to predict HFMD of EV-A71 subtype in three age groups (0-3, 3-6 and > 6 years old) from 2011 to 2018 using residualconvolutional-recurrent neural network (CNNRNN-Res), convolutional-recurrent neural network (CNNRNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN). They were compared with auto-regressio, global auto-regression and vector auto-regression on both short-term and long-term prediction. Results showed that CNNRNN-Res and RNN had higher accuracies on point forecast tasks, as well as robust performances in long-term prediction. Three deep learning models also had better skills in peak intensity forecast, and CNNRNN-Res achieved the best results in the peak month forecast. We also found that three age groups had consistent outbreak trends and similar patterns of prediction errors. These results highlight the superior performance of deep learning models in HFMD prediction and can assist the decision-makers to refine the HFMD control measures according to age groups. HFMD is a mild gastrointestinal disease, mainly caused by EV-A, EV-B and EV-C species, while the EV-A71 subtype is prone to more serious complications 1. Spatial and temporal patterns of HFMD incidence are strongly correlated with climatic factors 2-4 , e.g. high-level humidity and middle-level temperatures. Social factors also affect the spread of HFMD, e.g. contact amongst children in school 5. Under the influences of multi-type pathogenic viruses, complex climatic and social factors, HFMD presents a periodic outbreak in the Asia-Pacific region 1,5. In China, the incidence and mortality of HFMD have been leading the type C infectious diseases since its severe outbreak in 2008 and the situation is getting worse. Beijing city, the capital of China, is also vastly threatened by HFMD 6. Studies have explored the predominant virus 6,7 , weather factors 8,9 and space-time patterns 10 of HFMD in Beijing. Vaccines that prevent EV71-associated HFMD have been developed, but HFMD wouldn't be eliminated because of many other pathogens. Therefore, forecasting the prevalence of HFMD in Beijing is still essential for public health. Many previous studies used regressive models to predict the incidence of HFMD 11-16. In addition to the HFMD incidence data, search index, temperature records, air quality and other exogenous variables were applied to fit the regressive models. Although these methods had achieved acceptable prediction accuracies, there are still some limitations. First, these works only focused on the total number of cases. They ignored the intrinsic age groups in children. In fact, children aged 0 to 6 are the most susceptible to HFMD, while children over the age of 6 have stronger immunities to HFMD. So, under the effect of epidemic transmission dynamics and immunity, there are connections among inc...

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Influenza illness averted by influenza vaccination among school year children in Beijing, 2013‐2016

Cited by 8 publications

References 17 publications

Factors associated with childhood influenza vaccination in Israel: a cross-sectional evaluation

Factors associated with childhood influenza vaccination in Israel: a cross-sectional evaluation

A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China

Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018

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