Influencia del nivel inicial en la definición de resguardos estacionales en presas

Santillán

et al. 2020

Water

Self Cite

The aim of this study is to contribute to solving conflicts that arise in the operation of multipurpose reservoirs when determining maximum conservation levels (MCLs). The specification of MCLs in reservoirs that are operated for water supply and flood control may imply a reduction in the volume of water supplied with a pre-defined reliability in the system. The procedure presented in this study consists of the joint optimization of the reservoir yield with a specific reliability subject to constraints imposed by hydrological dam safety and downstream river safety. We analyzed two different scenarios by considering constant or variable initial reservoir level prior to extreme flood events. In order to achieve the global optimum configuration of MCLs for each season, we propose the joint optimization of three variables: minimize the maximum reservoir level (return period of 1000 years), minimize the maximum released outflow (return period of 500 years) and maximize the reservoir yield with 90% reliability. We applied the methodology to Riaño Dam, jointly operated for irrigation and flood control. Improvements in the maximum reservoir yield (with 90% reliability) increased up to 10.1% with respect to the currently supplied annual demand (545 hm3) for the same level of dam and downstream hydrological safety. The improvement could increase up to 26.8% when compared to deterministic procedures. Moreover, dam stakeholders can select from a set of Pareto-optimal configurations depending on if their main emphasis is to maintain/increase the hydrological safety, or rather to maintain/increase the reservoir yield.

Section: Determination Of the Study Set Of Mcls To Be Analyzedmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Flood Control Versus Water Conservation in Reservoirs: A New Policy to Allocate Available Storage

Santillán

et al. 2020

Water

Self Cite

“…• Scenario 2 (Sc.2): For all the 100,000 hydrographs, initial reservoir level was set equal to the Flood Control Level (FCL). We defined this level as the level that makes the maximum water reservoir level of return period 1000 years equal to the Design Flood Level (DFL), fulfilling the regulation standards [12]. • Scenario 3 (Sc.3): For each one of the 100,000 hydrographs, a variable initial reservoir level was assigned.…”

Section: Initial Reservoir Level Studied Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic Assessment of the Influence of Reservoir Operation in Hydrological Dam Safety through Risk Indexes

Garrote

et al. 2018

Ecws-3

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Hydrological dam safety assessment methods traditionally assume that the reservoir is full while it receives the design flood. In practice, reservoir management strategy determines the probability distribution of reservoir levels at the beginning of flood episodes. In this study, we present a method to economically assess the influence of reservoir management strategy on hydrological dam safety and downstream flood risk. The method was applied to a gated spillway dam located in the Tagus River basin. A set of 100,000 inflow hydrographs was generated through a Monte Carlo procedure, reproducing the observed statistics of main hydrograph characteristics: peak flow, volume, and duration. The set of 100,000 hydrographs was routed through the reservoir applying the volumetric evaluation method as a flood control strategy. Three different scenarios were studied: Initial reservoir level equal to maximum normal level, equal to a maximum conservation level, and following the probability distribution of initial reservoir levels. In order to evaluate economically the influence of initial variable reservoir level and compare the three scenarios, a global risk index was applied. The index combines the hydrological risk for the dam, linked to the maximum water level experienced in the reservoir while the flood is routed, and the flood risk in the downstream river reach, linked to the discharge releases from the dam. The results highlighted the importance of considering the fluctuation of initial reservoir level for assessing the risk related to hydrological dam safety.

Hydrological Risk Analysis of Dams: The Influence of Initial Reservoir Level Conditions

Garrote

et al. 2019

Water

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In this paper, we present a method to assess the influence of the initial reservoir level in hydrological dam safety and risk analysis. Traditionally, in professional practice, the procedures applied are basically deterministic. Several physical processes are defined deterministically, according to the criteria of the designer (usually in the conservative side), although there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding these processes. A relevant variable is the reservoir level considered at the beginning of flood events. Hydrological dam safety assessment methods traditionally assume that the reservoir is initially full when it receives the design flood, thus, staying in the conservative side when designing a new dam. However, the distribution of reservoir levels at the beginning of flood episodes takes more importance for evaluating the real risk for the dams in operation. We analyzed three different scenarios—initial reservoir level equal to maximum normal level, equal to a maximum conservation level, and following the probability distribution from the historical records. To do so, we presented a method applied to a gated-spillway dam located in the Tagus river basin. A set of 100,000 inflow hydrographs was generated through a Monte Carlo procedure, by reproducing the statistics of the main observed hydrograph characteristics—peak flow, volume, and duration. The set of 100,000 hydrographs was routed through the reservoir applying the Volumetric Evaluation Method as a flood control strategy. In order to compare the three scenarios, we applied an economic global risk index. The index combines the hydrological risk for the dam, linked to the maximum water level reached in the reservoir, during the flood routing, and the flood risk in the downstream river reach, linked to the discharge releases from the dam. The results showed the importance of accounting for the fluctuation of initial reservoir levels, for assessing the risk related to hydrological dam safety. Furthermore, a procedure to quantify the uncertainty associated with the effects of initial reservoir level on hydrological dam safety, has been proposed.