Influence of weather and technology on corn and soybean yield trends

Swanson, Earl R.; Nyankori, James C. O.

doi:10.1016/0002-1571(79)90007-4

Cited by 19 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The slopes of unadjusted trend yields over 1960 through 2006 were lower than the slopes of the weather-adjusted trend yields produced by the models. These results are consistent with findings by Swanson and Nyankori (1979). It occurs because unfavorable weather lowers yields much more than favorable weather increases yields.…”

Section: The Effect Of Average Weather On Trend Yieldssupporting

confidence: 92%

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Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt

Tannura¹,

Irwin

Good

2008

SSRN Journal

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We investigate the influence of weather anomalies on net migration in the Eastern United States using a county-level panel for the period from 1970 to 2009. One major mechanism is through the effect of weather on agricultural yields, which we examine in further detail using an instrumental variables approach. Our preferred model uses the seasonality of the sensitivity of corn yields to extreme heat over the growing season, which peaks during corn flowering, as instrument. The reduced-form estimate of the migration response to extreme heat closely mirrors the seasonality of corn yield. Our IV approach will provide an unbiased estimate of the responsiveness of outmigration to yield unless other determinants of migration, such as peoples direct preference for weather, perfectly align with the pattern of corn flowering. This is unlikely given that the exact dates of corn flowering vary from year to year. Our estimated semi-elasticity ranges from-0.3 to-0.4 depending on the chosen time trend, i.e., a one percent change in yields leads to an opposite 0.3-0.4 percentage point change in the net migration rate. The migration response is strongest for young adults and not significant for senior citizens. Extrapolating from this relationship, we project that climate change would induce significant outmigration in the U.S. Corn Belt.

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Section: The Effect Of Average Weather On Trend Yieldssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…This provides evidence that unfavorable weather slightly flattened the unconditional trend (unadjusted for the effects of weather). It also confirmed similar findings by Swanson and Nyankori (1979).…”

Section: Corn Yields Weather and Technologysupporting

confidence: 91%

Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt

Tannura¹,

Irwin

Good

2008

SSRN Journal

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“…Among these are a near quadrupling of plant density for maize, adoption of soybean as a major crop essentially producing a biculture (corn and soybean) managed ecosystem, and earlier planting dates as a result of advances in mechanization and plant breeding (Swanson and Nyankori 1979;O'Neal et al 2005). Intensification of agriculture and changing crop patterns over large areas of the central United States (including the upper Great Plains) consumes (and transpires back into the atmosphere) a significant amount of additional water requiring tapping groundwater storage and intercepting and diverting runoff.…”

Section: Storage and Agriculture Structure And Productivity)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Intense Precipitation over the Central United States

Groisman

Knight

Karl

2012

Journal of Hydrometeorology

227

189

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In examining intense precipitation over the central United States, the authors consider only days with precipitation when the daily total is above 12.7 mm and focus only on these days and multiday events constructed from such consecutive precipitation days. Analyses show that over the central United States, a statistically significant redistribution in the spectra of intense precipitation days/events during the past decades has occurred. Moderately heavy precipitation events (within a 12.7-25.4 mm day 21 range) became less frequent compared to days and events with precipitation totals above 25.4 mm. During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948-78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of ''very heavy'' (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events. Tropical cyclones associated with extreme precipitation do not significantly contribute to the changes reported in this study. With time, the internal precipitation structure (e.g., mean and maximum hourly precipitation rates within each preselected range of daily or multiday event totals) did not noticeably change. Several possible causes of observed changes in intense precipitation over the central United States are discussed and/or tested.

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“…However, in most cases, this is not possible because many data are not sufficiently documented. This method eliminates the long-term trend of growth without ignoring the particularly large upward or downward fluctuations on an annual basis [19]. According to [43,44], influences on yields can be eliminated using a linear trend adjustment and the factors that remain in the smoothed data.…”

Section: Calculation Of Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Climate Conditions on the Temporal Development of Wheat Yields in a Long-Term Experiment in an Area with Pleistocene Loess

Heil

Lehner

Schmidhalter

2020

Climate

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Field experiments were conducted to test different agronomic practices, such as soil cultivation, fertilization, and pest and weed management, in highly controlled plot cultivation. The inter-annual yields and the interpretation of such experiments is highly affected by the variability of climatic conditions and fertilization level. We examined the effect of different climate indices, such as winterkill, late spring frost, early autumn frost, different drought parameters, precipitation-free periods, and heat-related stress, on winter wheat yield. This experiment was conducted in an agricultural area with highly fertile conditions, characterized by a high available water capacity and considerable C and N contents in lower soil depths. Residuals were calculated from long-term yield trends with a validated method (time series autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA) and these served as base values for the detection of climate-induced, short-term, and inter-annual variations. In a subsequent step, the real yield values were used for their derivations from climate factors. Residuals and real yields were correlated with climate variables in multiple regression of quantitative analyses of the yield sensitivity. The inter-annual variation of yields varied considerably within the observation period. However, the variation was less an effect of the climatic conditions during the main growing time periods, being more of an effect of the prevailing climate conditions in the winter period as well as of the transition periods from winter to the warmer season and vice versa. The high storage capacity of plant available water exerted a remarkable dampening effect on drought-induced effects during the main vegetation periods. Increasing fertilization led to increased susceptibility to drought stress. The results indicate a changed picture of the yield development in these fertile locations.

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Influence of weather and technology on corn and soybean yield trends

Cited by 19 publications

References 5 publications

Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt

Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt

Changes in Intense Precipitation over the Central United States

Influence of Climate Conditions on the Temporal Development of Wheat Yields in a Long-Term Experiment in an Area with Pleistocene Loess

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