Influence of targeted observations on short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean

Campins, Joan; Navascués, Beatriz; Santos, Carla; Amo-Baladrón, Arancha

doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2891-2013

Cited by 11 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Another way is to analyse the direct impact on the forecast of the additional observations or even of the additional assimilation of some available and unused data, like high-density satellite data (Campins et al, 2013). The results obtained until now are not conclusive, but indicate the partial usefulness of some additional data.…”

Section: Targeted Observation and Impact Of Additional Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

MEDEX: a general overview

Jansà

Alpert

Arbogast

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The general objective of the international MEDiterranean EXperiment (MEDEX) was the better understanding and forecasting of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean. This paper reviews the motivation and foundation of MEDEX, the gestation, history and organisation of the project, as well as the main products and scientific achievements obtained from it. MEDEX obtained the approval of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and can be considered as framed within other WMO actions, such as the ALPine EXperiment (ALPEX), the Mediterranean Cyclones Study Project (MCP) and, to a certain extent, THe Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) and the HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX). Through two phases (2000-2005 and 2006-2010), MEDEX has produced a specific database, with information about cyclones and severe or high impact weather events, several main reports and a specific data targeting system field campaign (DTS-MEDEX-2009). The scientific achievements are significant in fields like climatology, dynamical understanding of the physical processes and social impact of cyclones, as well as in aspects related to the location of sensitive zones for individual cases, the climatology of sensitivity zones and the improvement of the forecasts through innovative methods like mesoscale ensemble prediction systems.

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Section: Targeted Observation and Impact Of Additional Observationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

MEDEX: a general overview

Jansà

Alpert

Arbogast

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…The results obtained by Campins et al (2013) have shown a distinct impact of targeted data during DTS- PREVIEW-2008 andDTS-MEDEX-2009. It was argued that it was due to the distinct weather regimes that dominate over each period and the existing composite observing system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…The set-up and verification methods employed in these observing system experiments follow closely those performed previously by Campins et al (2013) to test the influence of radiosondes deployed during the DTS-PREVIEW-2008 and DTS-MEDEX-2009 campaigns on the forecasting of high-impact weather in the Mediterranean.…”

Section: Experimental Set-upmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The targeted component for SOP1 was possible thanks to the agreement between HyMeX and EUCOS, the Programme for the Composite Observing System of the European Consortium of National Meteorological Services, EUMETNET. A similar collaboration took place in the former field campaigns DTS- PREVIEW-2008and DTS-MEDEX-2009(Campins et al, 2013. The implementation of an adaptive observation component for SOP1 lies with the Data Targeting System (DTS), a webbased tool which manages the entire data targeting process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Recently, Campins et al (2013) have tested the usage of targeted observations deployed during DTS- PREVIEW-2008 andDTS-MEDEX-2009 to improve the forecast of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean. They have carried out some Observing System Experiments (OSEs) based on the assimilation of targeted radiosondes, and found an overall positive impact using the High Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) regional NWP system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of targeted observations on HIRLAM forecasts during HyMeX‐SOP1

Campins

Navascués

2016

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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An adaptive observing system with terrestrial and space‐based components has been explored, with the aim of improving numerical weather prediction skill in the Mediterranean. Four Observing System Experiments based on the HIRLAM system have been conducted to test the influence of targeted observations on short‐term forecasts of high‐impact weather events over the first Special Observation Period of the HyMeX international project. Extra radiosoundings and enhanced Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) satellite observations are assimilated as targeted observations, and have been added to the baseline first separately and then jointly. In general, targeted observations have a positive but small impact on the short‐term forecasts, noticeably at 700 to 500 hPa in all parameters and precipitation. Targeted radiosoundings produce a clear overall improvement of HIRLAM forecasts. Data targeting based only on satellite observations has a generally positive impact on precipitation, and in short‐term forecasts of the rest of the parameters. The assimilation of both types of extra observations produces the highest and most statistically significant improvements. The magnitude of the impact on the forecasts depends on the weather regime that determines the location of sensitive areas. According to the diagnostics obtained from the data assimilation cycle, the targeted observations had a still larger positive influence on the subsequent analyses. Extra radiosoundings and additional satellite radiances clearly improve the first‐guess quality over land and sea sensitive areas respectively.

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Addressing the sensitivity of forecast impact to flight path design for targeted observations of extratropical winter storms: A demonstration in an OSSE framework

Kren

Cucurull

Wang

2020

Meteorological Applications

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Few studies have examined the forecast uncertainties brought about from varying aircraft flight track patterns in targeted observations for extratropical winter storms. To examine the degree of uncertainty in downstream forecasts caused by different aircraft flight patterns, a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are performed and demonstrated for two extratropical winter storms identified in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) T511 Nature Run using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Data Assimilation System and Global Forecast System (Q1FY15). Winter storms were chosen to support operational Pacific Ocean targeting strategies using unmanned aircraft. For these two storms, objective and composite flight tracks are generated as they could occur in an operational field mission to sample sensitive areas and meteorologically important regions, and then the changes in downstream forecasts across the various flight tracks are evaluated. The forecast impact downstream is sensitive to flight track orientation and shows case‐dependent results, with some flight patterns leading to significant improvements, while others result in neutral to degraded forecasts. The degree of downstream uncertainty in the verification region can vary up to 8% from the different flight paths, depending on the metric used and the atmospheric variables analysed. Although the study is a demonstration of the technique and is limited to only two case studies, it suggests that uncertainty in flight path design should not be neglected in future field missions. Some guidance for mitigating this uncertainty is also discussed.

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Influence of targeted observations on short-term forecasts of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean

Cited by 11 publications

References 37 publications

MEDEX: a general overview

MEDEX: a general overview

Impact of targeted observations on HIRLAM forecasts during HyMeX‐SOP1

Addressing the sensitivity of forecast impact to flight path design for targeted observations of extratropical winter storms: A demonstration in an OSSE framework

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